Much cooler conditions on Wednesday will tighten up the snowpack, but still be aware of periods of intense solar radiation that can rapidly increase the avalanche danger on solar aspects.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Temperatures should drop through the night and be much cooler tomorrow. Highs of only -6 degrees are expected Wednesday with freezing levels near 1600m. Winds will be moderate to strong from the West. Wed and Thurs will bring a mix of sun and cloud, but Fri and Sat may see flurries with small accumulations.
Avalanche Summary
Observations were limited, but one size 3.5 wet slab was observed on a North and NE aspect at 2400m. This slide likely occurred in the past 24hrs during a period of warming. This slide stepped to ground along much of it's 800 metre wide fracture line.
Snowpack Summary
Spring conditions. The snowpack is settling rapidly. Surface crusts are melting during the day and re-freezing at night. The snowpack has gone isothermal at lower elevations on the warmer days (including today). Even North aspects have been affected with moist snow as high as 2500m. One large recent avalanche has occurred on a North aspect (see Avalanche Activity). Where cornices exist they are large and sagging.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.