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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 9th, 2017–Apr 10th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Jasper.

The slopes look inviting but Jasper Forecasters are still leery of big slopes that have not seen ski traffic or previous avalanche activity. 

Weather Forecast

Melt-freeze cycle in the valley bottoms. Light winds and cool temps keeping the surface snow dry above tree-line. Pulses of precipitation (rain below tree-line and snow above) into the week.  Starting to see strong diurnal spring temperature cycle developing.

Snowpack Summary

Good skiing  above 2000m.  Icefields has10cm of settled storm snow. This rests on a solid mid-pack which bridges the weak base above 2000m. The base is a combination of weak facets and depth hoar mixed around a Nov rain crust. Consistent melt-freeze cycle below tree line. Surface crusts are breaking down by mid morning.

Avalanche Summary

A couple sz 3 avalanches in steep un skiable terrain NE alpine where cornice failure has triggered deep persistent slab.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Tuesday

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.