Warm temps with rain at lower elevations, and new snow with moderate winds in the alpine have caused the avalanche danger to rise.
Weather Forecast
It is presently raining lightly up to at least 1900m. Freezing levels today are expected to remain at 2000m with light precip and moderate to strong SW winds. Overnight freezing levels should lower to 1800m, with rain changing to flurries at higher elevations. Friday we may see some sunny breaks with freezing levels rising to 2000m.
Snowpack Summary
Warm temps and strong solar yesterday weakened the surface snow below 2400m on solar aspects and 1900m on shaded slopes. Warm temps prevented an overnight freeze. Variable conditions on shaded aspects above treeline from stiff wind slab to bare crust. Reactive wind slabs exist at ridge crests. Recent snowpack tests fail below a crust down 15-25cm.
Avalanche Summary
Warm temps and strong solar triggered a few loose, moist natural avalanches to size 2 yesterday. Skiers were also able to ski cut a size 2.5 avalanche from a steep S asp at 2350m. The avalanche was loose and ran several hundred meters, entraining the loose moist surface snow.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.