Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

Wind slab are still possible on NE, E and SE facing slopes above 1800m. Exercise caution around steep, loaded entries; convex rolls; and unsupported terrain.

It's a big region to keep track of: If you're out and about, send us some photos of what you're seeing as a Public Observation.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    The wind slab from the end of the storm on the 16th will be settling but could still be triggered in the right (or wrong?) places. Exercise caution around steep, loaded entries; convex rolls; and unsupported slopes above 1800m.

    A few cm of new snow and strong winds about the Divide could also form small, reactive wind slabs on Saturday afternoon. This is likely limited to the mountaineering terrain around the Divide. These slabs won't bury you but could sweep you off your feet, and a slide could have nasty consequences.

Recent Avalanche Activity

A number of small loose wet avalanches ran on sunny slopes on the 17th.

Prior to this, there was an avalanche cycle during the storm on the 13th, 14th and 15th, with wind slab and storm slab avalanches on south and east aspects and loose wet avalanches on all aspects below around 1800m.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Around 120cm of new snow fell around the divide, tapering to around 100cm on the Liebigs, and 25cm in the eastern part of the forecast area above 2000m at the start of the week. This has been redistributed by gale NW and SW winds leaving deeper drifts in sheltered areas and slick crusts in exposed areas. Below around 1800m the snowpack is capped with a hard rain crust.

The new snow appears to be well bonded to the old snowpack, but we are continuing to monitor crust facet laminates in the lower pack in the eastern part of the forecast area.

Mountain Weather

Mostly cloudy with a few showers, turning to rain in the afternoon, possibly heavy.

Wind at 1000 metres: Westerly 50 km/h.

Wind at 2000 metres: Southwesterly 60 km/h.

Wind at 3000 metres: Gale westerly 75 km/h, rising to severe gale 95 km/h for a time in the morning and afternoon.

Freezing level: 2100 metres, lowering to 1700 metres before dawn.

Sliding Danger

Exposed areas have been stripped back to a slick crust by strong NW and SW winds. Below 1800m there may be slick rain crusts. Take an ice axe and crampons for any travel above the snowline.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident due to a stable weather pattern.
  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.
  • We are uncertain due to a highly variable snowpack.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered