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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2020–Jan 5th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Fresh windslabs will be easy to trigger as temperatures rise Friday and Saturday. This effect will be greatly enhanced by solar radiation if cloud cover is less then forecast.

Weather Forecast

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud with freezing levels rising to 2000m. West Wind 40-60 gusting 80 km/h

Saturday: Mostly Cloudy with 2-8 mm of precipitation. Strong West winds. Freezing Level 1600m

Sunday: A mix of Sun and cloud with scattered flurries. Moderate - Strong West winds. Freezing Level dropping to valley bottom by sat evening.

Snowpack Summary

At cameron Lake, a 20-60cm Windslab had developed over the past week. The Middle of the snowpack is well settled but a weak facet/ melt freeze crust still lurks near the base of the snowpack.

The Front ranges have a deteriorating melt freeze crust up to 1800m on top of a faceted lower snowpack. Shallow snowpack areas require extra caution.

Avalanche Summary

No new observations

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.