The big storm may have passed, but elevated danger ratings will persist, especially with forecast warm temperatures. If the sun comes out, the avalanche danger may become HIGH.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
We can expect a mix of sun and cloud for the forecast period as a ridge of high pressure pushes into the province. Ridgetop winds should remain light to moderate from the west-northwest. Freezing levels should sit at about 1500m on Tuesday, rising to about 1800m on Wednesday and then dropping back to about 1500m on Thursday.
Avalanche Summary
Several storm slab avalanches to size 2 were reported to have released on variety of aspects and elevations on Sunday. Numerous natural deep persistent slab avalanches to size 3 also occurred on the same day and stepped down to the February 10th interface. In a few isolated cases storm slab activity stepped down to basal facets at ground. Looking forward, another natural cycle may occur on solar aspects with forecast sunny breaks and warming.
Snowpack Summary
A storm slab which formed in recent days overlies small surface hoar crystals in sheltered areas and a sun crust on previously sun-exposed slopes. Wind and warming have created an "upside down" slab which may be particularly reactive where it overlies the buried crust. Rain at lower elevations has likely saturated much of the snowpack. Cornice development has also been significantThere is ongoing concern for a mix of weak surfaces which were buried on February 10th. This persistent interface lies about a metre below the surface, and includes weak surface hoar, well developed facets and a mix of hard surfaces which remain widespread at all aspects and elevations. Potential triggers at this point include a surface slab in motion, a large cornice fall, or intense solar warming.For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated. Weak basal facets exist in some areas, but triggering is unlikely.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.