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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 5th, 2015–Feb 6th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Jasper.

It's going to be Heads up Hockey out there on the Jan ice layer. Snow fall amounts may be in excess of 20cms for friday morning with more expected thought the weekend! 

Weather Forecast

All the weather models are in agreement (a rare occurrence in itself) and so far, precip models are proving correct. It's snowing out my window as I write. If this pattern of weather truths continues we should find up to 20cms of new snow on the ground Friday morning and much more to come. Keep your eye on the forecast through the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

With the first input of new snow we likely will find areas of new buried surface hoar. That is sitting on a further 15cm over the Jan rain crust found on all aspects up to 2100m. Wind slabs forming on lee aspects, cross loaded features and open areas.

Avalanche Summary

Road patrols reporting poor visibility and no new avalanches observed.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.