A weak interface of surface hoar, facets and suncrust formed during the early January drought is likely to become increasingly reactive as new snow adds to the load that it is currently carrying.
Weather Forecast
A weak warm front making its way inland will bring cloudy skies and warming temperatures through Wednesday. This warm front will be met by an arctic front sliding down from the north on Wednesday evening/Thursday morning, uncertainty surrounds the intensity and timing of the resulting snowfall, amounts may vary from 10-20cm.
Snowpack Summary
Moderate-Strong SW winds scouring areas of previous melt-freeze crust, and redistributing up to 7cm of recent new snow into thin windslabs. These are covering surface hoar, up to 6mm in size, in locations sheltered from NW winds and old surface facets. The middle and lower snowpack are well settled and currently giving no notable shears.
Avalanche Summary
There has been no recent avalanche activity observed or reported.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.