Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

During the day, the snowpack remains generally stable and avalanches are unlikely. Overnight, new snowfall and wind could create areas of unstable snow in steep terrain and the possibility of triggering an avalanche will continue to increase through the early morning hours. Watch out for drifts of soft new snow that is deeper than your boot tops as a sign that avalanche danger is rising.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    What and where is it: Later today and overnight, 6 - 8+ inches of new, light-density snow could be easily moved by shifting and increasing winds, creating wind slabs that are sensitive to your weight. The most likely place to find a new wind slab is in steep terrain above 3000 feet on north-facing, east-facing, and south-facing slopes. 

    How can you recognize it:Pay attention to the timing of new snowfall. As snowfall rates increase into the evening, deep drifts of soft, new snow are a clear sign of a new wind slab problem. Look for clear signs of avalanche danger, including cracking or collapsing in the snow under your feet, shifting & increasing wind speeds, and plumes of new snow being blown by the wind. How can you manage it:If you choose to travel in avalanche terrain tonight or early tomorrow morning, it may be hard to identify the location of new wind slabs if visibility is poor. Dig down to the interface of the hard, old snow surface to evaluate how easily new snow wants to slide off of that slick surface. Be aware that avalanche danger is likely to increase through the morning hours.

Avalanche Discussion

Today:The snowpack in avalanche terrain is a mix of hard, slick rain crust and small areas of old, wind-hardened slabs that are generally unreactive and stable. For most of the day, expect to find conditions that are in-line with a LOW avalanche hazard rating. If you find a deeper drift of softer snow with a concerning snowpack structure, it should be easy to avoid by finding an alternate route on wind-hardened snow or on the icy rain crust. The most likely area to find an isolated, softer area of unstable snow is below 5000’ in elevation around terrain features like cliffs and narrow gullies that are highly wind-protected. Crampons, an ice ax, and a helmet can help to mitigate the risk of a serious fall in steep terrain today.Tonight / Early Wednesday Morning:Later today and overnight, expect increasing avalanche danger with incoming snow and winds that are forecast to increase and shift direction. 

Weather models are generally aligned on snow totals of at least 6 - 8 inches by daylight tomorrow and a shift in the wind direction and increase in wind speed overnight. This setup creates an opportunity for soft, sensitive wind slabs to form, especially on east-facing and south-facing terrain. Initially, new wind slabs are not likely to be very large, however if winds shift in direction from south to northwest and increase in speed earlier, or if snow accumulations are more than expected, triggering a larger and more dangerous avalanche tonight or early tomorrow morning is possible. 

OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation on our website or in the new Avy phone app of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts.

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