San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Temperatures will cool even more today, reducing the avalanche hazard.  These cooler temperatures, along with partly cloudy skies and moderate NW winds, will keep most slopes from softening.  If traveling in the backcountry, be cautious of icy conditions and uneven frozen surfaces on snow-covered slopes.  

Near normal winter temperatures will return to the San Francisco Peaks today with a high of 23 degrees F at 11,500' and wind chill values as low as -5 degrees F.  This means the region will have gone from summer to spring to winter-like conditions in the span of 3 days.  Yes, welcome to the New West  Arizona weather.  Why the sudden drop in temperatures?  A trough to the north is classically skirting the northern Arizona region, yet leaving us with its bitter cold front.  Yesterday, moderate winds at the front edge of today's cold front reduced temperatures and kept most snow surfaces frozen.  A similar trend is expected today, with temperatures dropping another 5-7 degrees F.  Expect frozen and icy snow surfaces across most of the forecast zone.   If conditions remain cold today, triggering an avalanche will be highly unlikely.  

Conditions on the mountain have become even more challenging since the last forecast.  Snow connectivity in most access and egress locations is no longer possible due to melt occurring over the last week.  Expect additional transitions and challenges when moving from zone to zone across the mountain.  Traction in the form of ski or board crampons, and boot spikes or piolets, remains well advised.  

If you're looking for background Information on the persistent slab problem:

A brief season rewind: a significant storm impacted the peaks in late November, followed by a generally dry and warm December. This period produced basal facets, although warmer periods moderated facet development. This dry period was followed by two significant rain events over the Holidays, which have plagued the season with the dreadful Holiday Ice Layer (HIL).  Following the Holidays, we have had several smaller storms that fell on top of the HIL, but the snow was often redistributed, stripping windward upper-elevation aspects and leaving the ice crust exposed. In areas with newer snow, subsequent dry conditions have allowed it to facet, creating near-surface facets. These smaller storms were buried by the mid-February storm, creating a complex snowpack that contains two persistent weak-layer problems (e.g., near-surface facets and basal facets), each with its own distribution, and, if overloaded, could facilitate large avalanches. Following this storm, the snowpack has experienced unseasonably warm temperatures and is struggling to adjust, as evidenced by persistent propagation in test pits.  

Generally speaking:

Thus far, this season is the second warmest on record.  Although on pause today, this trend is expected to resume Sunday, take another short pause, and then persist for the foreseeable future.  A small group of dedicated individuals who have not given up on winter continues to find "hard to get to", but pleasurable turns.  Check out their observations here.   If you find yourself out in the backcountry, consider submitting an observation.  Your contributions are greatly appreciated!!