Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wet loose avalanches are the primary concern on steep slopes near and below treeline, where large amounts of wet surface snow exist. Active southwest winds and a small amount of new snow will continue to build wind slabs on leeward aspects above treeline. Although unlikely, buried weak layers still have the potential to produce large slab avalanches. Watch for natural signs of instability and carefully evaluate the snowpack before committing to steep terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Snow surfaces near and below treeline are wet and weak after multiple nights without refreezing and periods of rain on snow. Slopes steeper than 35 degrees—especially near rock outcrops, chutes, and gullies—have the highest potential for human-triggered wet loose avalanches. Watch for natural signs of instability, such as rollerballs, point releases, and active rainfall. These signs indicate unstable conditions and should prompt you to choose different terrain.

    (2/24/2026)

    Wet snow in a funneling terrain feature (like this one) is a likely area for wet loose avalanches to occur. 

    Photo: Hayden MacArthur

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Above treeline dry snow is still available for transport, with additional snow expected over the next 48 hours. Moderate southwest winds will keep forming small drifts on the leeward sides of wind-exposed terrain features. Blowing snow, wind lips, and textured snow surfaces are all indicators of this problem.

    Drifts will be most reactive just below ridgelines and in features such as gullies and mid-slope depressions, where deeper deposits can accumulate. Look for shooting cracks as a sign of instability, and stick to wind-sheltered or scoured terrain to avoid this hazard.

    (2/20/2026)

    Small wind deposits like this one are possible in alpine terrain today. 

    Photo: Christian Jordan

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–2.5

    Avalanches failing on a buried graupel layer about three feet deep continue to present a low-likelihood, high-consequence scenario. Earlier this week, after a period of rapid loading, a large avalanche in the Old Ski Bowl released naturally on this layer which sits above a crust. 

    It is unlikely that a human or machine could trigger this layer. However, as warm temperatures and additional rainfall persist, the primary concern is water moving through the snowpack and pooling on the crust, weakening the graupel to the point of failure. While unlikely, the consequences of such a slide would be severe, and we cannot completely rule out the possibility. For this reason, the problem remains listed.

    Stability tests have shown this layer to be unreactive. However, due to the dynamic effects of water within the snowpack, there is no definitive way to eliminate this concern until freezing temperatures re-strengthen the snowpack, which looks to occur early to mid-week.

    Meanwhile, use caution on steep slopes near and above treeline. Consider avoiding terrain below cliff bands where graupel may have accumulated. As always, evaluate the consequences before committing to steep terrain, or choose conservative terrain options and allow the snowpack more time to adjust to the warm temperatures and rain.

    (2/25/2026) Photo: Christian Jordan

    Large natural persistent slab avalanche in the Old Ski Bowl off of Green Butte Ridge. 8,800 feet, east/southeast. The width of the crown is about a third of a mile. 

Avalanche Discussion

Curious about what conditions are like in the Eddy Mountains? Take a look HERE.

Today, March 1st, marks the first meteorological day of spring. Hurray, or maybe nay, dependent on what you like. Nevertheless, the robins have returned, and the forest is alive with smells and aromas. Snowfall looks to return to the area mid-week. And while it may not be all-time powder conditions, we have the second-best thing to look forward to: corn snow! Either way, conditions change fast, so don't be sad that it's over, be glad because it happened. 

Regions covered