Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

While the rain might actually end by Monday, a wet and saturated snowpack and continued warm temperatures mean wet avalanches are still possible. Avoid travel below big, steep slopes, cornices, cliffs, and rocky terrain covered in snow. If you do choose to head to the mountains, expect thick wet snow, open creeks, and less coverage than the last time you were out.

Avalanche problems

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The likelihood of more wet avalanches is trending lower as rain ends and the amount of water working its way through the snowpack decreases. But the size and consequence will remain the same - very large, powerful avalanches with thick, wet chunky debris. They are highly unsurvivable. Travel and riding conditions are less than desirable, so there isn’t really much reason to head into steep terrain.

    Glide slabs, falling cornices, and other wet avalanche types still present a serious danger to backcountry travel - even if there aren't as many natural avalanches in the coming days. You can identify features of concern in the terrain above you like glide cracks and cornices. The easiest solution will be to skip travel on or under steep slopes until the snowpack has a chance to drain and temperatures trend more seasonal.

    (1/28/2024)

    Glide avalanches, and glide cracks that show where more will happen, on the east side of Herman in the Baker BC. 

    Photo: Julz Holder - Grounding Truth

Avalanche Discussion

We are at the point where the natural avalanche cycle is transitioning to what’s informally known as the “shed" - a prolonged period where glide avalanches, wet slabs, and cornices occasionally fall off the mountain with no particular rhyme or reason.  Warm temperatures and occasional rain showers will continue to weaken the bonds holding these unsupported features in place. The only antidote is colder temperatures.

West Central got another soaking Saturday night and rainfall amounts again met or exceeded expectations. Most weather stations picked up 1.0-1.5"  from 4pm Saturday to noon Sunday. There has been nearly 4” of rain since it started Friday afternoon. Similar precipitation was seen at Snoqualmie Pass while Stevens Pass again came in on the low side with less than an inch.

Despite the paltry amounts of rain, Stevens still saw natural activity with wet avalanches to D2. Avalanche control work at Stevens Pass Mountain Resort also produced avalanches that broke into older, deeper layers that have been lingering in the snowpack since late December. 

The observed avalanche activity in West North achieved carnage status, with numerous D2 and D3 wet avalanches having run long distances, gouged into the ground below the snow, and generally laid waste to the mountains. A few more wet avalanches to D2.5 were triggered with avalanche control work at the Mt. Baker Ski Area. 

There has been a huge loss of snowpack in the last two days with many stations showing a 20% reduction. Lots of terrain features that are normally filled in and rideable now sport bare ground or waterfalls.

 

Regions covered