Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Three to 6" of snow has graced the San Francisco Peaks.  Human-triggered avalanches remain unlikely; however, backcountry travelers should be on the lookout for pockets of instability, including isolated wind slabs near and above treeline, and the remote possibility of persistent slabs near and above treeline on north facing chutes and gullies.  Avoid steep windloaded starting zones, crossloaded gullies, and windrifts accumulated on the leeward side of ridges.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Small wind slabs of 3-6" could occur, especially on isolated terrain features where slick crusts have created an ideal bed surface.  These slabs will likely be small in size, but some catchment zones may release in longer vertical sections.  These avalanches could knock a skier or rider off their feet and into or over terrain features.  Travel with caution and assess new aspects carefully, especially on steep terrain, where wind transported snow has accumulated.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Basal facets buried at the bottom of the snowpack continue to persist on northern facing slopes.  Over the last week to two weeks, they have been unreactive in stability tests, including those conducted in pits averaging just 50 cm.  Skiers and riders should continue to exercise caution in the starting zones of steep wind loaded chutes.  The variable conditions across terrain make this problem difficult to assess, and it is possible that some slopes may still harbor reactive layers deep in the snowpack.  The only way to fully know if this persistent weak layer is still present and assess its reactivity is to dig.  Don't make assumptions; even though this problem seems to be abating, it could still produce a small to large avalanche capable of burying a skier or rider.  

Avalanche Discussion

In the last 24 hours, 3-6 inches of new snow has graced the San Francisco Peak's high-elevation slopes.  In certain areas this new snow, especially if driven by wind, may not bond well with the hard and icy surface crusts of yesterday.  Watch for shooting cracks, shearing, and possible sluffing snow, especially on the leeward side of vertical ridgelines.  

Before this last snow, a myriad of wind and sun crusts were present on small and large scales across the mountain.  A few meters of horizontal distance can result in dramatically different surface conditions.  Timing can also make a significant difference in both skiability and possible avalanche hazard, with warming afternoon temperatures making weak layers more susceptible to the weight of a skier or rider.

Conditions in the backcountry could be much improved from earlier in the week.  Ski and ride with care and watch for the remote possibility of small avalanches carrying a skier or rider over steep or rocky terrain.

Regions covered