Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You could trigger avalanches in wind-drifted snow at upper elevations. Choose low-angle terrain if you observe actively drifting snow or stiffer textured pillows of snow produce cracking beneath you. There is also still potential for triggering much larger avalanches failing on deeply buried weak layers on shady slopes at upper elevations. Consider the high consequences of one of these avalanches if you venture into shady slopes at high elevations. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    At upper elevations, winds may drift the recent snow into stiffer slabs where you could trigger an avalanche. Slopes below ridgelines and the base of cliffs are likely spots for wind slabs to form. Look for textured surfaces or stiff, hollow-sounding snow to identify wind slab locations. If you see shooting cracks in wind-stiffened snow, this is a sign to choose low-angle terrain. Cornice falls are common this time of year and are a hazard on their own, but they can also trigger slab avalanches on the slopes below. Don't linger for long beneath these monsters. We expect most of these avalanches to be small, but there is potential for these avalanches to step down into deeper layers and become large. 

    (2/15/2024)

    An example of cracking in wind drifted snow. 

    Photo: Katie Warren

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Triggering a large 2-4 foot thick persistent slab remains possible on the north side of the compass at mid and upper elevations. We suspect this problem to be most dangerous in areas with fresh wind-drifted snow, especially in locations with a more shallow snowpack. 

    Unfortunately, the recent June-like weather spell wasn't enough to put this persistent slab problem to bed. There is a preserved weak snowpack structure of faceted snow over the Early February Crust on northern aspects above about 5500ft. The recent snow load may be enough to make triggering a large and surprising avalanche more likely for a few days. 

    These avalanches can surprise you by propagating widely or being triggered from a distance. You may or may not receive signs of instability before triggering this type of avalanche. The best way to reduce your risk of triggering persistent slabs is by avoiding leeward sides of ridges and steep, rocky, complex start zones on the north side of the compass. 

    (3/24/2024)

    A recent very large avalanche near Mt. Daniel. We suspect this avalanche ran between 3/22 and 3/24 on a deeply buried weak layer. 

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

If you enjoyed the sunshine on Sunday, be prepared for a cloudier day on Monday with the chance of a few light rain and snow showers. 

While it may not be a sunny day, warm temperatures mean you may trigger some small wet loose avalanches as the snowpack warms in the afternoon. It is early spring, and the dynamic spring weather brings dynamic avalanche conditions. New snow concerns like wind and storm slabs can quickly become wet snow problems by the afternoon. Make frequent observations, and be prepared for rapidly changing conditions and snow stability. 

On Saturday, an NWAC forecaster found 10-12" of new snow above 6,000ft near Fortune Peak. He reported natural and human-triggered wet loose avalanches in the new snow. He also observed a widely propagating avalanche near Mt. Daniel, which may indicate that we aren't entirely done with the tricky persistent slab problem yet. While most slopes may have supportable thick surface crust, this recent avalanche could point to lingering instability on weak snow over the Early February Crust. On 3/22, the Mission Ridge Pro Patrol reported weak snow and propagating test results on the EFC on shaded aspects above 6000 ft. They found this weak layer about 2-3 ft deep. Check out the video in the gallery for more information. On 3/20, an observer on Dirtyface Mountain reported a large whumph on an east aspect at 5700 ft. In this location, the surface snow was moist, but it is a reminder that weak layers are still lurking despite the recent warm-up. During periods with higher uncertainty, the best strategy is to widen your margins. Give slopes that fit the description a wider buffer and carefully assess slopes before skiing, climbing, or riding larger slopes. 

On other aspects, the snowpack has endured a serious beating due to the recent warm-up. Observers have been reporting a variety of wet surfaces, supportable crusts, or even melted-out slopes on windward and steep solar aspects. 

Observations have been sparse. Help create a more accurate forecast by submitting your public observations here. 

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