Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

There is significant uncertainty, but recent snow fell on a weak snowpack, and avalanches may be easy to trigger in steep terrain. On wind-drifted slopes, avalanches could be much larger and break across terrain features. A good way to manage these tricky conditions is to choose a conservative mindset and dial back your terrain choices by seeking out lower-angle sheltered slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Natural and human-triggered loose avalanches could be fast-running on an older melt-freeze crust on slopes near 40 degrees. While they may be small and predictable, they could push them into gullies, trees, or cliffs. If you observe long-running sluffs, practice good terrain management, stop out of the runouts in steep terrain, and use extra caution around consequential terrain. If the sun breaks out in the afternoon, we could see these loose slides run naturally and be more wet than dry on sunny slopes. 

    (2/7/2025)

    An example of natural loose dry avalanches from last season near Washington Pass.

    Photo: NCH

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    7-10" of snow fell over weak faceted snow and buried surface hoar. On sheltered slopes, these avalanches may act more like your average storm slab, but they may be reactive for longer than you expect. In wind-loaded areas, avalanches may break widely across terrain features or be triggered remotely. You'll want to steer clear of steep lee slopes near ridgelines, where these avalanches are likely to be much larger.

    Long shooting cracks, whumping collapses, or natural avalanches are key indicators of dangerous avalanche conditions. Small, steep test slopes or convex features can help gauge the reactivity of the upper snowpack. But given snowpack variability, be cautious about extrapolating your results too broadly.  Instead, seek out low-angle terrain protected from the wind while the snowpack adjusts and we gain more information on how the buried persistent weak layers are handling the new load. 

    (2/18/2026)

    Skiers triggered this very shallow wind slab avalanche on the 18th, highlighting the sensitivity of buried weak layers in the upper snowpack.

    Silver Star Mtn, middle elevations, N-NE

    Photo: NCH

Avalanche Discussion

Tuesday's weather will be fairly uneventful, expect mostly cloudy skies with the potential for some clearing, light winds, and minimal (if any) snow. 

On Monday, professionals in the Washington Pass area reported small natural and triggered avalanches in the new snow and over the 2/7 crust. Most avalanches were small, but observations were largely from sheltered terrain. Over the weekend, there was a report of a widely propagating, but shallow wind slab avalanche near Heather Pass. While we don't have much info on that incident, the propagation is a clear warning sign of persistent slab avalanches. There is uncertainty about the extent of avalanches these persistent weak layers will produce, but it's best to treat them with suspicion until they prove otherwise. 

On all but southerly aspects, there's 8-12" of dry, weak snow over the upper crust (February 7th). The layer immediately above the crust is extra weak with larger faceted grains and surface hoar. The January 28th crust is thicker and now 12-16" below the surface.  On southerly aspects, there are more crusts and less dry, weak snow on the surface. Further west of Washington Pass, the crust may be thicker and deeper with more dry snow between them. Farther east, in places like the Chewuch and Twisp River drainages, the snowpack is shallower and weaker. Here, the crusts have become faceted on shady aspects, with the upper 2/7 crust barely discernible in some northerly terrain.

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