Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering an avalanche 2-3 feet thick remains likely today in steep, rocky areas. Numerous large and destructive avalanches occurred naturally over the past week—triggering one of these beasts would have catastrophic results, even on small but steep slopes, due to the terrain-trap features common here. Avalanches may be triggered remotely from below, to the sides, and above steeper terrain. Choosing lower slope angles is best to manage the avalanche hazard & enjoy the fresh snow today.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Recent snowfall and wind continue to stress weaker snow around 2-4+ feet deep. Assume this snow exists on most east, north, and west-facing slopes. In the last few days, these weak layers have received an increase in loading. The recent clear weather revealed avalanches on both layers and human-triggered activity occurred yesterday. Your weight may more easily impact them at middle elevations where the slab is thinner in rocky areas. It isn't easy to know how thick the snowpack is on a given slope, so consider your terrain choices carefully.  Recent natural and human-triggered avalanches are evidence that the snowpack is still adjusting.  Safer travel options always exist by sticking to slopes less than ~30 degrees without steep slopes above you. Though the likelihood of triggering is trending downward, the possibility (and consequences) have remained the same.

    Avoiding terrain where both of these problems overlap will be key.

     

    A persistent slab avalanche that was remotely triggerd by a snowmobile yesterday (2/17).

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Winds have built 1-3’ thick slabs in exposed upper-elevation terrain. New snow and wind equal weight on various weak layers in the snowpack. This stress is amplified in areas where dense, thick wind slabs have formed during recent strong winds. Smaller wind slab avalanches have the potential to step down to more deeply buried weak layers. This could result in a larger avalanche, which is why they are a secondary concern to the problem above, but still something to watch out for while moving in the mountains today. Newly drifted snow that is deeper than 6” is a red flag. Suspect features include exposed ridges, rocky areas, cross loaded terrain, and gullies. Be on the lookout for wind affected snow such as drifts or wavy textures. A day of warm sunny weather has made these slabs more stubborn in some locations, however, human triggering remains possible. Probing the snowpack for hardness changes (hard over soft) is a good way to identify these slabs.

Avalanche Discussion

At the risk of undermining any notion of expertise you may think I possess, I've made plenty of bad decisions in avalanche terrain. I'm eternally skeptical of myself. Not to a paralyzing point, but I think about how I think about everything a lot. We are all fallible. The current avalanche scenario has very low feedback and is variable across locations in the zone. You may not receive any signs a slope is unstable, even after multiple tracks on a slope.  How else does one receive feedback when the environment doesn't provide it? Digging and probing will add some data points to your slope-by-slope feedback. With any snowpack, it's very important to recognize when you are dealing with a more complex problem than we as humans can typically fully understand.   Hopefully, we’ll have more evidence to pull from after this series of storms. I say “hopefully” because there’s an overarching "I guess we’ll wait and see if certain things avalanche naturally or not," while considering that we still see such a small portion of a mountain range and what has avalanched or not for feedback in a cycle. Pad any uncertainty you have today by building a wide buffer zone for error in your travel practices.

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