Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

The storm slowly exits our region on Wednesday morning, but the dangerous avalanche conditions will linger. You could trigger avalanches 2-4ft deep that break widely across terrain features. Seek low-angle slopes sheltered from the wind if you venture out for winter recreation. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    You are still likely to trigger storm slabs in steep terrain, and you might even see a few natural avalanches occur on wind-loaded slopes. Weak layers now buried 2-4ft deep could produce avalanches that propagate widely across terrain features. Where the wind has drifted snow into even deeper wind slabs, avalanches could be much larger and easier to trigger. To avoid triggering a large and surprising avalanche, steer clear of steep terrain. Instead, seek out low-angle slopes sheltered from the wind. At lower elevations with a thinner snowpack, avalanches might be smaller, but they would carry high consequences if you are dragged through terrain still riddled with rocks, stumps, creeks, and other terrain traps.Look for signs of instability, such as collapsing, cracks that shoot away from you, and recent avalanches. These are all indications that you are likely to trigger an avalanche. Be particularly leery of steep wind-loaded slopes. You can use visual clues like textured surfaces, drifts around rocks/trees, and cornice formations to identify wind-drifted snow. 

    (1/7/2024)

    A skier triggered and took a short ride in this avalanche that failed on buried surface hoar in the Teanaway Drainage on Sunday. 

    Photo: Rob Pollard

Avalanche Discussion

That was quite the storm! 1-2ft of snow fell across the zone, with winds averaging between 30-40mph. A bump in temperatures overnight on Monday means that elevations below 4000ft likely saw some rain before quickly transitioning back to snow. A bit more snow overnight and into Wednesday, along with sustained moderate winds, will maintain a high likelihood of triggering avalanches. 

We don't have much info on the extent of avalanche activity yet, but we expect that it is widespread. We know that various weak layers in the upper snowpack are now buried deeply and could produce very large avalanches. Before this storm, backcountry travelers on skis and snowmobiles triggered multiple smaller avalanches on a layer of buried surface hoar (1/2). In the Wenatchee mountains, weak faceted snow over the Solstice Crust produced avalanches during avalanche control work at Mission Ridge on Tuesday. An NWAC forecaster in this area also saw propagating, unstable snowpack test results on this same layer. Widely propagating avalanches have also occurred at Crystal Mountain in the adjacent West South zone. We can't rule out avalanches in the new storm snow stepping down to these deeper weak layers. Extra caution and wide margins are warranted until we have more information on the reactivity of these layers. 

Lower elevations likely have significantly better coverage after Tuesday's storm, but the coverage is still below average. These elevations may not quite meet the threshold for large avalanches. However, you could still trigger a smaller avalanche with serious consequences from hitting exposed hazards like rocks, stumps, or downed trees. 

If you get out let us know what you see by submitting a public observation!

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