Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Issued Mar 15, 2023valid to Mar 16, 2023Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

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Avalanche danger

Thu

Alpine

3 · Considerable

Treeline

3 · Considerable

Below

3 · Considerable

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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

As the snowpack adjusts to a new load avalanche danger will remain elevated. Storm slabs remain present on all aspects and elevations. Shifting winds have made wind drifts possible on all aspects near and above treeline with northerly and easterly aspects holding the highest concern. Riders are likely to trigger slides on convex slopes steeper than 30 degrees and it's possible for natural slides to occur in steep complex terrain. Route selection and terrain management will be key if traveling in or near avalanche terrain. Cracking underfoot and natural avalanches are both signs that this problem still has some life left.

Avalanche problems

Storm Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Very Likely
Size
1–2.5
Over the past 72 hrs, 16 inches of snow has fallen near treeline. That snow fell with different densities and at different rates, creating multiple interfaces within the storm snow. These interfaces could fail at depths of 10 cm to 40 cm dependent on slope angle, trigger, and aspect. Weak snow beneath denser snow from days prior cannot be discredited. Northerly shady aspects will harbor this problem longer than southerly slopes. With time and stable weather on our side, it's likely this problem will begin to heal. It's days like today, right after a big snow that this problem could show its true nature. Having a conservative mind state will be the best line of defense.
(3/13/2023)

Foot deep storm slab crown on convex terrain feature. Southeast aspect near treeline.
Photo: S.Clairmont
Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Likely
Size
1–2
Riders should remain cautious and not rule out the chance of wind slabs on northerly and easterly aspects that received days of wind-loading the previous week.

Winds have abandoned their southwest flow that they governed for so long. Today winds will blow from the north and northeast at light speeds. Over the last 24 hrs winds have spun around the compass and blown from every direction, averaging a south and southeast direction at calm to light speeds. With abundant light snow available for transport, it's possible fresh wind drifts have formed on all aspects near and above treeline. Look for freshly wind-loaded surfaces, wind lips and blowing snow to help determine wind direction.

(3/15/2023)

24-hour wind speed and direction.

Predominant south and southeast direction at light speeds.

A six-hour period where winds blew from the northwest at moderate to strong speeds.
Photo: E.Falconer
Loose Wet
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
1–1.5
With the sun high in the sky wet-loose activity will be on the rise today. The sun can have fast and drastic impacts on snow surfaces. Roller balls, pin-wheels and snow falling out of trees all indicate solar impact. At lower elevations where the snow surface is wetter, solar impact will continue to saturate and degrade the snow surface. Avoid areas that are presenting signs of wet-loose snow.
(3/13/2023)

A saturated upper layer of snow at 5,000 feet.
Photo: E.Falconer