Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will start out MODERATE and rise to CONSIDERABLE as the air temperature and sun melt the snow surface. There were at least 15 new glide avalanches observed yesterday in the Turnagain Pass zone (including Girdwood), which makes this the most concerning problem today. These avalanches are very dangerous and it's best to avoid being underneath any glide crack right now. Wet loose avalanches are occurring naturally and are growing in size with each passing warm day and more dangerous wet slabs are becoming possible. As surface crusts break down, or where they don't exist, a person could also trigger a large avalanche on a layer of buried surface hoar that is 2 to 3' deep in Turnagain Pass. There is a lot of uncertainty with the timing of dangerous conditions and these problems can be avoided by choosing low angle slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: Numerous reports came in yesterday evening of new glide and wet avalanches from the last 2 days. Many of these were on the south facing slopes of Penguin between Girdwood and Bird Point with one captured in motion at 6:06pm yesterday evening (see photo below). Many new wet loose and glide avalanches were observed in Turnagain Pass on Shark's Fin, Eddie's, and Seattle Ridge including a very large glide that released sometime late afternoon yesterday on a southeast facing slope on Seattle Ridge. One new glide avalanche was even noticed on an east northeast facing slope in the Skookum Valley. We haven't seen many on north facing slopes so this is a heads up that they could be anywhere.

    All the activity in the afternoon the last few days, and another warm day forecast today, means avalanche conditions will be dangerous this afternoon, or even this morning, if there are places that didn't freeze hard last night with an inversion in place this morning. High clouds are forecast to come in this afternoon, which could cool things off and make these problems less likely, but that depends on many factors like air temperature, timing of clouds, and potential greenhousing. Glide avalanches take the snowpack to the ground and have been running below treeline so it is best to completely avoid being underneath a glide crack right now. 

    Wet loose avalanches have been releasing naturally and will be more likely for a person to trigger as the snowpack warms through the day. These avalanches could be bigger today than they have been and they have the potential to trigger a larger slab avalanche. A scary sign of a wet slab collapse was observed just below 2.000' on a southwest aspect of Center Ridge yesterday. Even relatively small wet loose avalanches can be difficult to escape and the consequences of being caught in a wet slab are severe. If your boot is sinking to your mid-calf it's time to look for colder snow. Although this could lead you to problem 2 described below. 

    Cornices are also failing in the heat of the day. Some cornice fall has triggered large avalanches below, so this is another reason to avoid being underneath steep slopes in the afternoon. 

    (4/1/2025)

    Very large glide avalanche release that occurred sometime in the afternoon of April 1.

    Photo: Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Although this has moved to problem 2 with all the wet snow problems that are occurring, we still think a person could trigger a large avalanche on the layer of buried surface hoar that is 2 to 3' deep in Turnagain Pass. We have some uncertainty as to how likely it is for a person to trigger an avalanche on this layer, but the history of this layer's behavior has made it difficult to trust. It has failed after there are many tracks on a slope, and it has been triggered remotely and from low angle terrain. 

    On mornings when a stout crust has formed, conditions are generally safer as this crust can protect us from impacting the buried surface hoar and causing it's collapse. However, the timing of crust break down is tricky and this layer has shown it's potential to cause a large avalanche as recently as Friday, March 28 on Cornbiscuit. 

    If you are choosing to ride steep slopes look for small terrain features rather than large open bowls. Also ensure there are no terrain traps below like gullies or depressions where the snow could pile up and make a rescue difficult. 

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