Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The corn harvest is on! The danger will rise from LOW this morning to MODERATE later today due to increasing wet avalanche hazards.  If you show up too late to a sunbaked slope, expect to contend with shallow wet loose avalanches.  They'll be easy to recognize: ankle deep slushy snow that starts gaining volume below your skis or sled on steep slopes.  Move to a colder aspect or less consequential terrain if that happens.  On northerly terrain, there remains a very small chance of triggering a much larger and more dangerous slab avalanche, particularly from shallow, rocky, or unsupported slopes.  

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The threat of shallow wet loose sluffs will increase as sunshine and warm temperatures thaw the frozen snow surface.   Although today's wet loose avalanches should be relatively small, they can be troublesome if they drag you down a gulley or push you over rocks or into trees.  Choose less consequential terrain once the snow surface melts to ankle-deep mush or more.  To avoid the problem, make a route plan that moves towards colder, shadier aspects as the day evolves.  

    Skiers yesterday triggered shallow but long-running wet loose avalanches on the south face of Teocalli Mtn in the afternoon.  

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2

     Slab avalanches breaking into old weak layers several feet deep have become unlikely, but not impossible.  Higher elevation, northerly facing terrain still holds a dry, winterlike snowpack; thus we can't completely eliminate the potential for a rare but large slab avalanche on these aspects.  The most suspect terrain is convex or unsupported slopes, especially near rock bands. You are most likely to trigger a slide from a shallower spot on the slope.  If you are skiing or riding in that type of terrain, reduce your group's exposure during uphill travel and choose appropriate safe zones from a large avalanche while descending.  Let your friend wrestle their stuck snowmobile off of suspect slopes by themselves.  

    Example of our most recent persistent slab avalanche that likely failed around March 30th.  This large avalanche highlights the type of terrain that remains most worrisome:  northerly, rocky, and unsupported.  

Avalanche Discussion

Despite yesterday's warm-up with mountain temperatures rising into the 40's, wet avalanche issues were relatively minor, with no natural activity observed and some shallow wet loose avalanches triggered in the afternoon.  The quieter snowpack is due to a combination of strong refreezes in recent days, a snowpack that has matured through several warm-ups now, and snow surfaces that are dense and lacking much fresh snow.  Today's surface warming and wet loose concerns will get a jump start ahead of yesterday because of a weaker overnight refreeze.   Increasing cloud cover later today and stronger winds today may help temper surface warming on westerly aspects, while thaw on easterly and southerly aspects should surpass yesterday's benchmark.   Although we're still expecting relatively small and shallow wet loose activity today, you can guarantee stable riding by timing your descents during optimal corn conditions: as the top couple inches of snow becomes wet while the rest of the snowpack is frozen and supportive.  Corn O'clock will start mid-morning on easterly aspects, and work south then west through the rest of the day.   Move to a colder aspect if you notice the upper snowpack melting into more than 6" of wet mush.  That could happen faster on steep slopes coated in a thick layer of dust, which expedites surface warming.   If you closed down the Talk last night, consider setting your sights on an aspect that gets sun later in the day to buy yourself a few more hours.  

Our last persistent slab avalanche was reported over a week ago on March 31st, and prior to that, we have to go back to March 18th for the previous persistent slab avalanche of note.  Each spring season, we watch terrain patterns as persistent slabs evolve into increasingly isolated and stubborn problems.  A common theme is that the random and somewhat surprising avalanches are typically in unusually shallow or rocky terrain, often in unsupported terrain features.  The big warm-up over a week ago in late March greatly reduced the places where you can find the problem; it is now relegated to upper elevation northerly terrain where the snowpack remains winterlike.  On these same aspects, you still might be able to trigger a thin, hard wind slab left behind by Tuesday's extreme wind event.  Snow surfaces and riding quality are pretty beat up by the extreme wind event on north aspects, so I'd personally opt for the higher reward with more predictable hazard riding options on east, south, or west-facing terrain today. 

Get out the door and go tick off a big spring corn line before it gets too sloppy out there and enjoy another beautiful day in the mountains!

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