Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger remains considerable in Mid and Upper elevations. Human-triggered avalanches up to 3 feet are likely on specific mid-elevation slopes between 2500 and 3500 feet. today. Avalanches above 3500 feet will be harder to trigger but could be very destructive due to 4+ foot deep slabs overlying our weak snowpack that formed early season. 

Below 2500 feet, avalanches are unlikely in areas where a rain-saturated snow surface has refrozen.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–2.5

    Our most sensitive weak layer of the season (12/1 rain crust/facet combo) has produced numerous signs of instability and avalanche activity over the last couple of weeks. If you travel along Thompson pass you will notice many persistent slab avalanches 2-3 feet deep on small, steep slopes just off the road. The big storm last week produced widespread avalanche activity, collapsing this layer in many areas; however, we still think it is likely you could trigger an avalanche in areas that haven't failed.  

    Although weak snow is slowly gaining strength, expect human triggered avalaches 2-3 feet deep to remain likely in specific areas between 2500 and 3500 feet where this weak layer hasn't settled. 

     

     

    One of many persistent Slab avalanches near road level that failed on the 12/1 weak layer.

    Photo: Joshua McDonald

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Weak snow that formed during the month of December is still a concern in many areas above 3500 feet. Facets buried 4-5 feet deep continue to be stressed by the snow loads from our last storm. The depth of this layer is making it less likely to be affected by human triggers, but more likely to have serious consequences if an avalanche is initiated. Shallow areas where the weak layer is closer to the surface may be more sensitive to human triggers, and the resulting failure could propagate into deeper snow on a connected slope.  

    This problem is unlikely to produce signs of instability due to the deep burial of the weak layer.  To avoid this problem, avoid travelling on or below large slopes over 30 degrees.

     

     

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours: None observed or reported

Forecast Discussion

Weak faceted snow at the base of our snowpack has been the main topic of discussion for the last month. Significant snowfall over the last couple of weeks is now insulating this weak base, creating an environment favorable for gaining strength. This will take some time, however, as persistent weak layers can take quite some time to heal, especially where snow is shallow. Our observations will continue to focus on the evolution of persistent weak layers for the foreseeable future. Stay tuned and check our observations page for regular updates regarding this situation.  

 For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary and Observations sections. 

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