Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Rapidly warming temperatures and a snow-to-rain transition will destabilize the snowpack. You may easily trigger a dangerous wet or dry snow avalanche at middle and upper elevations on Sunday. Stick to terrain less than 35 degrees and minimize exposure to large slopes above you where an isolated natural avalanche could run.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Human-triggered large slab avalanches may be large on Sunday and isolated natural avalanches are possible. Warming and additional wet snow early Sunday will create a stronger slab that could propagate more widely than you expect. This slab sits above weaker older snow, crusts, or bare ground depending upon your aspect. Saturday's upper snowpack was top-heavy and unstable. An intentionally triggered avalanche 2.5 ft deep with 50 ft of propagation on a NW aspect at Hurricane Ridge confirmed the slab avalanche problem. 

    Sunday will be a good day to dial it back. Stick to slopes less than 35 degrees at middle and upper elevations. Whumphs, collapses, or propagating cracks as you move through the terrain confirm that the snow needs more time to adjust to the temperature stress and new snow loading.

    (12/2/2023)

    Intentionally triggered size 1.5 avalanche on a NW aspect around 5300 ft at (Victoria Overlook, Hurricane Ridge). 2.5 ft crown with 50 ft of propagation. Likely failed on a 0.5 cm layer of facets above a crust.  

    Photo: Sam Siemens-Luthy - NPS Ranger

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Natural or human-triggered avalanches are likely at middle elevations once the snow changes to rain and/or temperatures rise above freezing. Note the weather conditions and also whether the snow surfaces are saturated and sticky to identify a potential problem. Rollerballs may give you one final warning before wet loose avalanches are imminent on slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Wet loose problems can develop and spike in a matter of minutes when snow changes to rain. Move off of and out from under slopes steeper than 35 degrees where these avalanches might occur. 

    At lower elevations, if there's enough snow to ride, small avalanches are possible on recently grassy slopes and rocks.

    Example: Wet loose avalanches can funnel you into terrain traps or into early hazards.

    Photo: Kaitlin

Avalanche Discussion

The above forecast applies to Hurricane Ridge. If you travel in the SW Olympics, danger levels may be a notch higher than forecast due to higher recent snow totals and more expected precipitation. In areas where we lack recent snowpack information, you may want to avoid avalanche terrain.

Hurricane Ridge can expect around 0.25" of water equivalent to arrive over the next 24 hours. That's not a  lot of water, so the warming is the bigger story. It will be critical to pay attention to the rain/snow line as it rises sharply during the morning hours. By the time you enter the terrain, the rain/snow line may be above most middle-elevation terrain. Storm slabs and wet loose avalanches will be most reactive during or shortly after periods of intense rain or snow.

Hurricane Ridge now has just over 20" of snow on the ground with about a foot of new snow arriving in the last 24 hours. North aspects already have a shallow, but layered snowpack. You might find 12-18" of lower-density snow gradually forming a slab atop a crust-facet-crust combination. On N and NE aspects the upper crust is less than 1/2 inch thick, with a two-inch layer of small facets above a stout crust. The two crusts were melded into a single layer on the slope of the intentially triggered avalanche mentioned above. If you find evidence of shooting cracks or whumphs as you travel, this weak snowpack structure could be the culprit. The stout crust formed due to rain up to at least middle elevations before the late November dry spell. Shallow snowfall faceted during that late November drought that melted snow off of all but the NW-N-NE aspects.

As the new snow continues to stack up, remember that just 3 days ago W-S-E aspects were bare ground. Dirt, rocks, downed trees, and stumps can catch you off guard while riding and may exacerbate a fall or any avalanche.

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