The overall avalanche danger is MODERATE. Sustained strong winds blowing from the west are creating heightened avalanche conditions on specific wind-drifted terrain features. Fresh slabs of wind-drifted snow may be hard or soft and up to 12 inches thick. Approach all upper-elevation slopes with caution, and carefully evaluate slopes steeper than 30 degrees where the wind has drifted snow.
Pay attention to warming snow conditions. If the sun comes out and quickly warms the snow surface, the potential for wet-snow avalanche will resume, and you should avoid travel on or beneath steep slopes.
Strong ridge-top winds blowing from the west will remain steady through the day. This will create pockets of soft and hard slabs in upper elevation terrain that may be sensitive to the additional weight of a rider. Avoid any slope steeper than 30-degrees where you observe obvious signs of wind drifting. The snow surface may appear rough and textured, with obvious changes in the surface hardness.
The Dry January Layer (DJL) of faceted snow is 2-4 feet deep and buried by a strong slab and supportable crusts in most parts of the zone. The last reported human-triggered avalanche failing on the DJL occurred on February 21 in the Ant Knolls. Triggering an avalanche failing on the DJL is unlikely, and this problem is moving toward dormancy. The suspect terrain where you can still trigger a dangerous hard-slab avalanche failing on the DJL is on northerly aspects at upper elevations, where there is a thinner slab, such as a "repeater slope" that previously avalanched this season.
Yesterday, both natural and human-triggered wet-loose avalanches occurred midday on steep sunny slopes. As the surface snow becomes wet and cohesionless it easy slides on top of the thick crusts beneath.
UAC Forecaster Nikki Champion traveled near Pole Line Pass and found a surprisingly shallow snowpack where the Dry January Facet layer remains weak and buried beneath a thin, hard slab. View the entire observation HERE. Photo below.
UAC Forecaster Drew Hardesty and UDOT Forecaster John Woodruff traveled on Mt. Timpanogos and found a very structured snowpack with several crusts and strengthening facets beneath. View the entire observation HERE.
I traveled up the South Fork near Cascade and also found a structured upper snowpack with a very thick and supportable crust beneath the recent storm snow. The DJL in this area was unreactive and moist, and showed signs that it is gaining strength. View the entire observation HERE.
Thinner snowpack and concerning PWL structure on a mid-elevation NE aspect. Photo: Champion
This morning, temperatures are in the upper 30s °F and nearly 10 degrees warmer than at 5:00 AM yesterday. Winds are blowing from the SW 20-25 mph with gusts into the 50s at Arrowhead and 10-20 mph with gusts into the upper 20s on Cascade Peak.
Today, mostly cloudy skies move in overhead as a dry cold front builds in from the north. Temperatures remain mild this morning and gradually cool down through the afternoon with daytime highs at mid elevations reaching into the upper 30s °F. Winds continue to blow steadily from the west, 10-15 mph with gusts in the 30s at 9000 feet, and 40 mph with gusts into the 60s at 11000 feet.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
