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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2014–Jan 15th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Wednesday: Some very light precipitation with very strong Northwest winds overnight, becoming moderate Northwest during the day. Freezing level rising to about 1800 metres during the day with some sunny periods.Thursday: Light to moderate Northwest winds with thin high cloud and a chance of sunny periods. Freezing level near 2000 metres.Friday: Warm air trapped at higher elevations. Above freezing temperatures in the alpine with sunny periods.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche size 2.5 reported from the East aspect of Old Glory near Red Mountain Ski Resort, the avalanche was observed from a distance and is suspected to have failed on the November surface hoar layer. Ski cutting resulted in several dry slab avalanches releasing on Northwest aspects up to size 1.5 near Nelson. Moist snow snow-balling was reported from the Kootenay Pass area during a period of strong solar radiation. Weak base layers are suspect, especially where recent storm snow amounts are higher. Wind slab or cornice falls in motion may step down to weak layers near the ground.

Snowpack Summary

There is now about 50-80 cm above the January 8th layer of buried surface hoar and/or melt-freeze crust. Snow profile tests on the buried surface hoar layer have shown moderate sudden planar results. Deeper in the snowpack is a weak layer of surface hoar from the end of November, and in some areas depth hoar or basal facets near the ground. There is a great deal of variation across this region.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.