Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Some wet avalanches large enough to bury people and vehicles are likely to release naturally. The threat of large avalanches will peak from about 2-8 PM. As the thin, surface crusts melt, minimize the time you spend on or below steep slopes.  

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Large, wet loose avalanches will release naturally on some slopes today. Given last night's weak or non-existent freeze, today's sunny skies and warm temperatures will turn the snowpack to mush. Conditions will become increasingly dangerous throughout the day.

    Natural and human-triggered avalanches are most likely when slopes are receiving direct sunshine, but high temperatures near or above 50F will make more northerly, shady middle elevation slopes suspect. Today's heat will also prolong the threat of large slides into the evening. Rocky slopes sheltered from the wind are especially prone to wet loose avalanching.

    How do we manage this problem? Minimize the time you spend on or below steep slopes after the thin surface crusts melt, or avoid avalanche terrain entirely. Pay attention to the terrain above you; natural avalanches are just as likely as human-triggered slides.  

    (4/6/2023) Widespread wet loose avalanches were observed in the Sawtooth Mountains on Thursday, April 6. There is still a lot of dry snow that will be coming down off the mountains in the coming days.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Large wet slab avalanches will become possible as meltwater moves into the snowpack today and this evening. Wet avalanches do not need human triggers to occur; they release on their own far more frequently than dry avalanches. Wet loose slides make great triggers for slab avalanches.   

    Accurately predicting slope-scale stability for wet slab problems is one step short of voodoo. Don't try to outsmart them.

    How do we manage this problem? Sadly, avoidance is the only reliable strategy. The prudent move is to stay off of and out from beneath large or consequential avalanche paths after the surface crusts melt, especially during the heat of the day and this evening. Avoid avalanche terrain where you're sinking into a snowpack that resembles oatmeal.  

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION: Today's heat and sunshine will cause cornice chunks to fall, potentially triggering wet or dry slab avalanches on slopes beneath them. If you're chasing dry, upper elevation snow, be wary of avalanche terrain beneath large cornices. 

    (4/5/2023) This avalanche was remotely triggered by two snowmobilers from a meadow 50 yds to the side of the slope. The slide broke over 1,000' wide and 2' deep. Thatcher Ck, near Copper Mtn. E and SE aspects around 8,500'.

Avalanche Discussion

Today is a great day to steer clear of complex avalanche terrain. March storms plastered snow into nooks and crannies that don't usually hold much snow, and today's heat and sunshine will "clean out" many of those nooks and crannies. Wet snow stability changes rapidly; the slope you safely rode or crossed beneath in the morning could be ready to release naturally hours or minutes later. 

If you're traveling in avalanche terrain today, have a safe "escape plan" in case you need to pull the plug on your initial plan. The mountains are in the middle of an unpredictable spring transition, and there will be plenty of time to ride or ski fun lines once the snowpack is freezing solidly at night. 

Regions covered