Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a large avalanche is not out of the question. Rocky, wind-swept slopes with variable snowpack depths are the most likely areas to find trouble. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Triggering a large, dense slab avalanche is becoming less likely but remains possible. Avalanches are easier to trigger in thin spots at the edges of slabs and wind-features. Watch for these proverbial land mines on the northern half of the compass, where the wind frequently blows, and the snowpack depth is variable. Many shady slopes in rocky alpine cirques fit that description. Some visual clues to identify suspect slopes:

    • Wind-pillows and textured surfaces where the wind has moved snow  
    • Rocks sticking out of the snow, either near or well below ridgelines
    • Terrain where some part of the slope is at least 35 degrees in steepness

    If you do trigger an avalanche, you probably won't observe obvious signs of instability like snowpack collapsing or cracking beforehand. Any triggered avalanches have the potential to break above you. 

    (12/31/2024) Triggering a large Persistent Slab avalanche like this one remains possible in middle and upper-elevation terrain, especially in wind-affected areas or areas with a snowpack less than about 3 feet deep. N aspect near 9400' in the Beaver Ck drainage, Smoky Mtns. 

Avalanche Discussion

After a rash of natural and human-triggered avalanches around the New Year, the last confirmed, large avalanche released naturally about 10 days ago in this zone. You are most likely to trigger avalanches in the southeastern corner of this zone (Salmon River Headwaters, Frenchman Creek, and the mountains near the mouths of Smiley and Beaver Creeks). These areas were hotspots for natural avalanches in early January.

Avalanches are difficult to trigger where the weak layers that formed in November and December are buried more than about 3 feet deep. Wednesday, we found a deep and generally stable snowpack in the Alturas Lake Creek drainage. Despite this, we traveled cautiously, choosing slopes with uniform, planar entrances and only short sections steeper than 30 degrees.

If you're playing in avalanche terrain, you can stack the odds in your favor by avoiding slopes that end in terrain traps like thick trees, cliffs, and creek bottoms. 

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