Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Up to a foot of new snow and very strong winds overnight are creating dangerous avalanche conditions at upper elevations. Natural and human triggered avalanches 1-2' deep are likely. Larger avalanches are possible on buried weak layers 3+' deep. We recommend avoiding avalanche terrain at higher elevations today.

A lull between storms is expected this afternoon before another very strong storm impacts the area. Avalanche danger will peak overnight tonight with the potential for very large natural avalanches.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Eastern Talkeetna Mtns - We've heard reports of remotely triggered avalanches near Gunsight Mtn in the eastern Talkeetnas. This area has no avalanche forecast and can harbor a shallow and weak snowpack. If you are heading north seeking dry snow this weekend be sure to assess the snowpack before entering avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The first storm system of the weekend is currently impacting the area and has brought 0.5 to 1" of water so far (6-12" of snow at upper elevations) and very strong east winds averaging 40-60 mph and gusting up to 96 mph overnight. Human triggered and natural avalanches are likely in areas where the wind has transported snow into wind slabs up to 1+' deep. In areas that received 10" or more of new snow overnight, human triggered avalanches are possible in wind sheltered areas as the new snow has not had time to bond to the old snow surface yet. Looking for shooting cracks, collapsing, and using test slopes or hand pits are good ways to assess the stability of the new snow.

    Cornices have been rapidly growing with all the new snow and wind this week and could fail naturally as windy conditions continue today. Visibility might make it difficult to see overhead terrain, so we recommend giving known corniced ridgelines a wide buffer to avoid exposure to potential cornice fall. 

    Photo: John Sykes

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The 3-4' of snow that has fallen at upper elevations in the past week is sitting on top of a weak layer of facets that formed on the surface during the clear and cold weather in late December and early January. This layer was highly reactive to the weight of a skier in the immediate aftermath of the storms last weekend. Since then we have seen mixed information about how sensitive this weak layer is. The fresh load of snow and wind from the current storm might be enough to make this weak layer more reactive again. Avalanches that release on this layer have the potential to be very large, releasing 3-4' deep and releasing very wide across the slope. 

    Assessing the stability of deeply buried weak layers is challenging and the best way to avoid this high consequence problem is to avoid avalanche terrain until the snowpack has a chance to adapt to the new snow coming today and tomorrow. 

    (1/9/2025)

    Upper pit, just below the ridgeline in Common Bowl, about 2700'.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

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