Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

While we still have a great deal of uncertainty in the snowpack in the Seward and Lost Lake region, there is increasing confidence that warm, wet and windy conditions are headed toward the eastern Kenai Peninsula this afternoon/ evening.  As the storm arrives, we can expect the avalanche danger to increase starting with fresh wind slabs and potentially wet loose avalanches in steep mid elevation terrain where rain may impact dry snow.

Today will be a good day to ensure you are out of the field before the weather makes a turn for the worse.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

This is a new forecast zone for us. We are excited to gather more information from both our field days as well as from folks out riding. If you get out in the Snug Harbor or Lost Lake areas we'd love to hear what you see. Drop us a quick note or send in some photos on our observation page!

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Relatively quiet weather yesterday allowed any wind slabs from Tuesday's storm another day to heal.  These are likely to be a bit more stubborn today but in the high alpine we may see fresh wind slabs forming with the incoming weather.  Winds are forecast to be blowing in the mid-20s gusting to the 40s from the southeast.  This is certainly strong enough to form fresh wind slabs in the alpine.  Watch for blowing snow, shooting cracks or a noticable change in the snow surface from soft to a more hollow or stiff feel.  These are all indications of wind slabs forming.  It's likely that soft snow can still be found in the mid-elevation trees around Lost Lake.  

    Thank you to those that have helped us gather information since Snug Harbor opened to snowmachines. With just a single data point (January 16th), we still have quite a bit of uncertainty and can use your help with any information, photos or observations if you're in the area!  As with any new zone opening, we urge caution and an assessment mindset as you/ we gather more info in this zone.

    Cornice: Cornices continue to grow with the steady march of storms and may be sensitive to the weight of a person or machine.   Anticipate cornices to break further back than expected and give corniced ridges a wide margin.  Check out this interesting observation from the Snug Harbor/V-Max area on Saturday. Some riders found large cracks in the snow that were 15 to 20' back from some cornice edges and big enough for a sled to fall into.

    Wet loose: With temps climbing and an atmospheric river forming, we may see some wet loose avalanches late in the day.  These are likely to take the shape of small point releases or rollerballs on very steep slopes.  If they pick up enough mass or gouge deep enough, we could see these initiate a more dangerous slab avalanche.  If you're skiing or riding on dry surface snow in the morning and that dry snow begins to see rain, it'll be time to retreat off of steep slopes.  The rain/ snow line is may reach as high as 2,000' in the Seward/ Lost Lake area today before (unfortunately) moving higher on Saturday.

    (1/17/2025)

    Daniel and Graham surveying the damage from the large avalanche in the V-max area.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

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