Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

3 to 5 inches of new snow moderate to strong west winds overnight have created wind drifted slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain.  Northerly and east-facing terrain near and above treeline is where you can potentially trigger a large persistent slab avalanche.  Stiff slabs rest on top of a weak layer that is 1 to 3 feet down and is still showing signs of being reactive. As we incrementally load slopes over the coming days expect this layer to become more reactive.  Avoid likely trigger points near rock outcrops or on the margins of the slab where you're more likely to impact this weak layer. Avalanche danger is expected to rise Sunday as another storm impacts our mountains. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and wind will continue to build slabs stressing deeper faceted weak layers. Northwest through east aspects near and above treeline is where you're most likely to find this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak. Faceted weak layers are 1 to 3 down in the snowpack and formed during the January and February high-pressure periods. Avoid slopes over 35 degrees paying attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.  Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses may not be present, but there is a possibility that you can trigger an avalanche from below.  Avoid likely trigger points near rock outcroppings, steep convex rolls, and on the margins of the slab.

     

    Near and above treeline on northerly and east aspects is where you're most likely to encounter stiff slabs on top of weak faceted snow beneath.  With more snow in the forecast over the next week, we may see these buried weak layers become more reactive.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    3 to 5 inches of snow fell overnight with west winds in the 15 - 25 mph range with gusts in the 40's.  Expect to find wind drifted snow and wind slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain at upper elevations.  These wind slabs formed on firm hard crusts and older slabs which may provide a good bed surface.  Watch for obvious wind drifted pillows and stiffening of the snow surface. Avoid slopes over 35 degrees where you find 6 or more inches of snow paying attention to obvious signs of instability like cracking on the surface.  These wind slabs are found on similar aspects and elevations as the persistent slab problem as there's a chance that a smaller wind slab can step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.    

Avalanche Discussion

After a week of very warm spring-like weather, we'll see a return to winter over the next week as several disturbances will keep chances of snow in the forecast. The first disturbance brought  3 to 5 inches of snow overnight with 0.2 - 0.35" of SWE.  West winds have been in the 15 to 25 mph range gusting in the 40's.  Light snow flurries and a chance of thunderstorms are forecasted today before the second system pushes into the Four Corners region tonight with snow expected through Sunday.  The parade of storms looks to continue through next week, bringing dribs and drabs and colder temperatures.  None of these systems looks to deliver a big wallop, instead, we'll see incremental loading along with moderate to strong winds. 

The persistent slab problem continues to linger and may become more reactive to the weight of a skier and rider as newly formed slabs stress the weak layers that formed during the January and February high-pressure periods.  Before this latest round of snow warm temperatures and time were helping heal this instability as we were finding the slab/weak layer combination less reactive in travels and long column tests. Unfortunately, this problem is going to stay with us and may become more reactive through the next week as we incrementally load slopes through a series of storms.  This first initial storm didn't provide the snowpack with a big wallop on its own, however, the totality of dribs and drabs of snow and wind that is forecasted almost every day for the next week will stress these weak to where these layers will become more reactive, without much time to adjust.  Expect the likelihood of triggering a persistent slab avalanche to increase with each loading event.    

Over the last 5 days, it felt fully like spring with temperatures climbing above freezing at all elevations and into the 50's at lower elevations.  This combined with the high sun angle and long sunny days the snowpack has been settling, melting away, and forming varying thicknesses of melt-freeze crusts on the surface.   On many south, west and east slopes the snowpack has melted down to the distinct dust layer from the strong winds we had on 2/22.  The wet snow avalanche concerns we've had will be a thing of the past with a solid refreeze this morning and cold temperatures forecasted through the week.  

Thankfully we'll see more snow in the coming days that should help improve the skiing and riding conditions but will also increase avalanche danger in the coming days as snow stacks up!

Regions covered