Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Expect very small avalanches to release in a saturated upper snowpack following another poor overnight refreeze. Weakened cornices may fail without warning and snow or ice on rocks and cliffs may continue to shed, so give them space on the slopes below.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Monday should be cooler than Sunday, but the minimal wet avalanche hazard, poor riding conditions and deep boot penetration are unlikely to change much. In most other areas, avalanches triggered within saturated surface snow will not pose a significant risk. Continue to monitor the terrain you travel across for terrain traps such as cliffs, exposed rocks, or bare ground where a small avalanche in shallow snow can be more consequential.

    If you're going to be able to trigger a consequential wet avalanche on Monday, you're most likely to find it in snow that hasn't fully transitioned to melt-forms after several nights without a solid refreeze. These areas will be on high elevation northerly aspects and in remote areas of the zone near the Cascade Crest. Sticky snow might be the best indicator for these areas of slightly elevated hazard if they exist.  However, temperatures will be dropping back toward the freezing mark at upper elevations, helping to stabilize these higher elevation slopes.

    Cornice failures and snow shedding off rocks and cliffs over the week both serve as a good reminder that sustained warm temperatures continue to create mountain hazards. Consider what might be able to fall down as you cross under terrain with these hazards.

    (3/25/2022) Wet loose avalanches off steep rocky terrain. The larger avalanches are likely from earlier in the week. Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

Sunday was a very warm day in the East Central zone with temperatures topping out in the 50s and low 60s, with clouds and some thunderstorms adding water to the already rapidly melting snowpack late in the day. NWAC forecasters traveled in the Blewett Pass backcountry and found a saturated, nearly fully transitioned snowpack with a minimal surface crust that broke down quickly with daytime warming. Very shallow avalanches were not entraining snow, as one would typically find in a summer-like snowpack. One higher elevation northerly aspect hadn't fully transitioned and had the potential for some entrainment.

Observers have been documenting weaker, faceted grains or surface hoar overlying a crust from early March on W-N-E aspects from Stemilt Basin to Icicle Creek and other areas to the north and south. This week's warm temperatures have likely created surface crusts at most elevations and aspects. While these crusts and icy surfaces have helped reduce the possibility of triggering a persistent slab, there is some uncertainty about elevations above 6500ft. You could find dry snow on northerly terrain at the highest elevations. If you are traveling through cold, dry snow, it will be worth digging down to identify any weak layers over the early march crust before committing to steep or consequential terrain. If you adventure up into the high alpine terrain of the East Central Zone, let us know what you find by submitting an observation. 

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