Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

An Avalanche Warning is in effect through Sunday, as very dangerous avalanche conditions exist. You can very easily trigger an avalanche big enough to bury and injure you. Avalanches may break on deeper buried weak layers creating very large avalanches.  Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    3 feet of snow has fallen over the last two days.  Yesterday storm slabs were very reactive near and above treeline, either failing within the storm snow on a density change or graupel layer or at the old snow interface that consisted of near-surface facets, crusts, and slick hard slabs at upper elevations. Slab development was less pronounced below treeline, where new snow concerns in wind-sheltered areas were from loose snow avalanches. With so much snow, a loose snow avalanche can grow in size as it entrains more snow and buries you in a terrain trap.     

    Pay attention to signs of instability like shooting cracks off your boards.   Storm slab avalanches will be dangerous on their own, but can also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

     

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Close to  3" of snow water equivalent (SWE) along with 3 feet of snow have fallen with this storm and rapidly loaded slopes, stressing deeper buried weak layers.  With each loading event this season, we've seen these weak layers become more reactive and producing natural avalanches.  We suspect we had a widespread natural avalanche cycle, with some avalanches failing on these weak layers, but without visibility, it's hard to tell the full extent.  Although many slopes likely naturally avalanched, slopes that didn't will be like a loaded gun just waiting for you to get on it.  

    These avalanches would be large to very large, potentially breaking 4 to 6 feet deep, and most likely would not be survivable.  Avalanches can be remotely triggered and break well above you and able to run long distances well into the flats.  Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes to slopes over 30 degrees. 

    Weak layers deeper down in the snowpack continue to remain reactive and will face a significant test from 2-plus feet of snow and over 2" of SWE. 

    (1/27/2024) Photo: Andy Bond

Avalanche Discussion

An impressive storm has brought 30 to 36 inches of snow and about 2.5 to 3" of snow water equivalent (SWE) over the last couple of days. Snow came to a stop yesterday evening, with mainly 10 - 20 mph west winds during the storm. This storm came in right side up, with dense heavier snow at the beginning and lower-density snow as it made it's exit. Today will bring clearing with sunny skies, warming temperatures, and winds remaining light out of the NW.  

Prior to this storm, the snowpack on many slopes below and near treeline was shallow with two distinct weak layers in the snowpack. Depth hoar near the ground and an early January facet layer got buried beneath slabs from the mid-January storms. These weak layers produced several large avalanches during these storms and continued to remain reactive in stability tests leading up to this storm. This latest round of snow has nearly doubled our snowpack and added a significant amount of weight quickly, which these weak layers will struggle to adjust to. Natural releases of smaller loose snow sluffs or storm slab avalanches will stress these layers even more  Several days of warm spring-like weather proceeded this storm and created crusts on many solar aspects, that may now have facets above and below it, and near-surface facets on northerly and shady slopes.  Storm slabs most likely will not be bonding well to these surfaces and could provide a 1 -2 punch with storm slab avalanches stepping down into deeper weak layers.      

Although we suspect most of the natural avalanche activity has peaked, warming temperatures and the first bit of sun could bring another round of natural avalanche activity.  Slopes that didn't avalanche are primed and ready to go, just needing a little extra weight like you to get on the slope.  Visibility was not great yesterday, but there were several large natural avalanche debris piles that we were able to spot.  With better visibility, we expect to get a better idea of the extent of the natural avalanche cycle that occurred overnight Friday into Saturday. Avalanche control teams yesterday reported very sensitive storm slabs mainly near and above treeline where transportable wind speeds were creating slightly stiffer more cohesive slabs.  In wind-sheltered areas with less slab formation, loose snow avalanches were the main new snow concern. 

It's deep out there! But this type of snow will force you to get into steeper terrain just to make a turn. Fight that temptation of chasing powder in steeper slopes. Terrain selection is the one tool we have when dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Sticking to slopes less than 30 degrees without steep slopes above you, will help keep you safer out there.  We're not going to get much of a break, as another impressive atmospheric river event heads our way bringing snow Wednesday through the rest of the week.   

 

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