Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Triggering an avalanche is unlikely today. That being said, the sustained moderate winds will maintain a remote possibility of finding a low probability-high consequence wind slab avalanche in steep terrain above treeline. Use caution when traveling on the upper elevations of Mount Shasta, look for signs of instability such as shooting cracks, small failing test slopes, and previous avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Yesterday's sunny and warm weather likely stabilized much of the wind slab concern. At lower elevations, a surface crust has formed overnight, preventing more wind transport from occurring. However, at upper elevations, where snow is still loose and available for transport, wind slabs remain stubborn but possible. Hollow wind drifted snow surfaces are prevalent, with shooting cracks still being observed. The variable wind direction has made this problem possible on all aspects. Approach wind loaded slopes with caution. Look for signs such as shooting cracks, and previous wind slab avalanches.

    Photo: Nick Meyers

    Arrow pointing to a skier triggered crack in wind slab, near treeline on Mt Shasta, 2.9.24

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Today, freezing levels will climb as high as 8,000 feet. These warm temperatures will surely loosen surface snow and allow for small point release, wet loose avalanches to occur. These are most likely to happen under rock outcroppings, and on slopes that receive all day sun. Though relatively small, these avalanches have the potential to take you off your feet and push you over rocks. As the day warms, remain vigilant on solar aspects. Perform ski cuts on small, inconsequential slopes to test for instability. Pinwheels, roller balls, increasingly deep boot penetration are all signs that the surface snow is destabilizing. 

    (12/30/2023)

    Wet Loose Avalanche (12.30.23)

    Photo: Samuel Clairmont

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's sunny skies has almost certainly resulted in a surface crust this morning. Expect to find one on all south-west aspects below and near treeline. High quality snow can still be found in the shaded areas. Above treeline, the continual winds have resulted in variable snow surfaces. Expect to find soft snow in gullies and protected areas, however, there will also be exposed rock, wind board, and sastrugi on exposed slopes and ridges.

Forecasters explored the Cliff Lake Avalanche Gulch areas yesterday. For Cliff Lake, snowmobile access is a bit slow-going, but overall, the coverage is quite good. A strong and supportable snowpack, and a snow depth of 120+ inches, has opened this area for winter recreation. Check out the Cliff Lake observation HERE.

Avalanche Gulch holds good coverage through the Red Banks. Soft snow can still be found in the gullies, but punchy, hollow wind drifts are abundant on the exposed moraines.

The Castle Lake road is still closed. Everitt Memorial Highway is open. Snowmobilers: Know your riding boundaries. Patrols are active and citations being issued. Ignorance is not an excuse for the law. Maps are available here and at major trailheads. Bunny Flat has been busy. It's a multi-use trailhead. Give respect to all users. Motorized users park below the restroom facility, please.

There is a chance we could see some climbers today or tomorrow, here are some hazards to consider on the upper mountain:

  • Ice fall. The upper mountain is holding rime ice on most cliff bands, including the Red Banks. As temperatures rise, ice will begin to shed, releasing large chunks onto the slopes below. Keep your eye out, and move through exposed areas quickly. A helmet will greatly help with this hazard. 
  • Wind slab. There is a chance of finding unstable wind drifted snow on steep terrain of the upper mountain. These slabs have the potential to take you off your feet and drag you over consequential terrain. Assess slopes cautiously before committing to them. 
  • High wind/cold temperatures. The summit plateau can be a brutally cold place in the winter months. Though forecasts may show reasonable temperatures at 14,000 feet, it will certainly be colder than you think. Bring the proper equipment for these conditions. 

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