Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

There is a chance of triggering a large avalanche on a layer surface hoar buried 2 to 3’ deep. This layer has been concerning above 1,500’ on all aspects. The safest option is to stick to low angle terrain and avoid being underneath steep slopes. Look out for fresh wind slabs in upper elevations and wet loose avalanches on slopes in the sun.

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Avalanche Accident: We are deeply saddened to report that on Saturday a snowmachiner passed away in an avalanche on the backside of Seattle Ridge in Turnagain Pass. Our preliminary report can be found here and we will provide a full report as soon as we are able.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: We are seeing many wet loose avalanches releasing on southerly facing slopes around Seward. This includes a wet loose avalanche on Lowell Point that ran almost to sea level on a south facing slope. Earlier last week there was an avalanche on the south side Mt Marathon that deposited 10’ of debris in Lowell Canyon.

    There is a chance of triggering a large avalanche on a layer of buried surface hoar 2 to 3’ deep that has been responsible for many human triggered avalanches in Turnagain Pass. That being said we have not heard of recent avalanches in Lost Lake and Seward on this layer. This may be because less people are getting on to steeper slopes and the weak layer is not as widespread. The truth of the matter is that on slopes where this layer exists it will be possible to trigger a large high consequence avalanche.

    This weak layer has been showing no signs the slope is dangerous and then it slides. We are seeing people trigger avalanches on slopes with multiple tracks on them. Slopes are being triggered where the layer does not appear to exist or does not seem concerning in snow tests. The avalanches we have been seeing are large and in some cases very wide and can be remotely triggered. This means that you may not even be on a steep slope to trigger an avalanche above you. The safest option is to choose stick to low angle terrain and avoid being underneath steep slopes.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Overnight winds from the east blew snow into fresh winds slabs up to 1’ deep or deeper. These will be more likely at upper elevations, below ridges, rollovers and in cross loaded gullies. Look out for blowing snow which is an indicator fresh wind slabs are forming. Clues like shooting cracks or snow that becomes stiff underneath you mean you are likely traveling on a wind slab. Triggering a wind slab has the possiblity of triggering a larger avalanche. 

    Loose snow avalanches may be easy to trigger on steep solar aspects (east, south, west). These will become more likely if the sun has a chance to poke through the clouds and temperatures warm up quickly. These may release from a point and get larger as they carry more snow down the slope or trigger a small slab avalanche. Seek shadier slopes if you find yourself in the sun and see rollerballs releasing. Worst case scenario, one of these avalanches trigger a large avalanche on a buried weak layer. 

    Limit time spent under cornices and giving them a lot of room on ridges. Look out for glide cracks above you and limit time spent under them. They can release spontaneously into large glide avalanches. 

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