Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

By this afternoon, the snowpack will be sweating buckets—and so will you if you’re on a steep, sun-exposed slope—because avalanche conditions will have turned dangerous. The avalanche danger will rise through the day as the sun works its way around the compass and the temperature climbs above freezing. Natural avalanche activity will increase in size and frequency. This morning, you can find safe avalanche conditions on southerly-facing slopes as the snowpack remains frozen. Then, it will be time to head elsewhere before you find yourself sinking deeply into a wet snowpack and/or see wet avalanche activity. 

On the northern half of the compass, heightened avalanche conditions remain for persistent slab issues. Previously wind-loaded terrain at near and above treeline elevations has been the most suspect. Over the weekend there were multiple human triggered avalanches in these areas.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet avalanche activity has become widespread on the southern half of the compass. Several large wet avalanches ran on Monday, and we can expect more to occur today. Wet slab avalanches have also released where old wind slabs formed last weekend, and wet slabs can further occur where this wet avalanche problem overlaps with the persistent slab avalanche problem. Wet avalanches will first develop on steep easterly facing slopes before following the sun around the compass. Move to colder snow and out of steep terrain before you begin sinking deeply into a wet snowpack and/or see wet avalanche activity occurring.

    An example of some small wet loose avalanches, and roller balls which are a sign that this avalanche problem is developing. These avalanches can become notably larger later in the day and where they run down bigger terrain features. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    In the past week, we've observed many large to very large slab avalanches breaking on weak layers in the upper snowpack and near the ground.  Feedback on the problem will be variable and infrequent. These issues are most concerning on wind-loaded terrain on colder, shadier aspects highlighted by the persistent slab rose.  Avoid steep, wind-loaded slopes, and wind-affected terrain with variable snow depths to reduce your risk.   Persistent slab instabilities are more isolated below treeline; stay alert on very steep or unusually shallow slopes. Southerly aspects typically lack the problem.  

    This human-triggered avalanche occurred on Sunday. The crown is 6ft tall in some places. Mt Axtell. 

Avalanche Discussion

We are back into the spring transition, and there is a lot going on. Persistent slab issues exist on the northern half of the compass, wet avalanche issues exist on the southern half of the compass, and a hybrid of both exists on the westerly and easterly shoulders of the compass. 

The first round of large wet avalanches began occurring on Monday. This was a clear indication that the avalanche danger will be rising to CONSIDERABLE this afternoon as more large natural avalanches are expected to occur. The snowpack saw a decent freeze last night, so there will be a good window of safe travel this morning on southerly-facing slopes before the avalanche conditions worsen. 

In the NW Mountain forecast area, there have been large to very large persistent slab avalanches documented in 9 out of the last 11 days. Meanwhile, the SE Mountain forecast area rejoined the large avalanche party after Saturday's snowstorm. Some of these avalanches released on a layer of facets that were buried earlier in March and have propagated across entire avalanche paths, like this recent avalanche in the Climax Chutes. At the same time, other avalanches are stepping down and taking out nearly the whole snowpack, like this avalanche on Mt Axtell. There are so many more examples in the avalanche database. Boiling down the data, previously wind-loaded terrain is producing the most persistent slab avalanche activity, especially northeast to east-facing aspects. 

Regions covered