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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2016–Mar 4th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Storm slabs are highly reactive to human-triggering and conservative terrain selection remains critical for the next few days. Extra caution is required on south-facing slopes in the afternoon if the sun pokes out.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks and a chance of flurries late in the day. Freezing levels reaching 1800-2000 m late in the day with moderate to strong southwesterly ridgetop winds. SATURDAY: Periods of snow bringing another 5-15cm. Freezing levels steady around 2000-2200 m with strong southwesterly ridgetop winds. SUNDAY: Periods of snow. The freezing level is around 1600-1800 m and ridge winds ease to light and variable.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday there was a report of a size 2.5 avalanche that was remotely triggered by a group on a ridge. This avalanche occurred in the northern part of the region on a NE aspect. In addition, there were reports of numerous size 1.5-2 natural storm slab avalanches and several size 2 explosive triggered storm slabs. These were on a variety of aspects between 1900 and 2100 m elevation. The slabs were releasing on the late-February crust/surface hoar layer down 30 cm.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm accumulations varied widely across the region, but were generally highest around Nelson where up to 45cm of new snow was reported. Significant wind transport has been noted so expect to find deeper, more destructive slabs in exposed lee terrain. The new snow overlies a new layer of well-developed surface hoar (up to size 20mm) which is very reactive to human triggers. This layer is widespread above 1700m except on south aspects where the interface was cooked by the sun and now exists as a buried crust. 80-100cm below the surface you will likely find the mid-February crust/facet/surface hoar layer. Although this layer has become less likely to trigger, avalanches failing at this interface could be large and destructive.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.