Avalanche forecast

Ogden

Issued Nov 28, 2022valid to Nov 29, 2022Utah Avalanche Center

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Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It will be a day of changing conditions and a rising avalanche danger.

The avalanche danger will rise to MODERATE for new snow avalanches and pockets of wind drifted snow. Human triggered avalanches will be possible in the mid and upper elevations.

Avalanche problems

Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
In the past 18 hours, we've seen some of the more consistently moderate to strong winds since last Wednesday. With plenty of snow available for transport and more on the way, human triggered soft slab avalanches will be increasingly possible in steep wind drifted terrain. These shallow drifts will be more prevalent on north to east to south facing aspects. I would approach any new wind drift with caution and fully aware that drifts may be equally problematic at the mid as well as the upper elevations. Shooting cracks and audible "whumphs" are signs of instability. With enough loading, some of these drifts may be triggered at a distance.

TREND: INCREASING
Storm Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
1
By late afternoon into the evening, shallow loose new snow avalanches will be possible on the steepest slopes of all aspects.

TREND: INCREASING

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Recent Activity

None.

Snow and Weather

Skies are overcast ahead of the first in a series of storm systems for the Wasatch.

Mountain temperatures are in the mid to upper-20s. Winds are out of the west-southwest, blowing 20mph with gusts to 30. The highest elevations have hourly averages of 30mph with gusts to 40.

A cold Pacific storm is on the doorstep and we'll see light snowfall through much of the day. Snowfall intensity will spike during and just after the arrival of the cold front, estimated to arrive during the afternoon commute. Winds will veer to the west northwest and be gusty for a few hours into the evening. By early evening, favored locations could see upwards of 5-8", with snowfall continuing through the night and into Tuesday. Lake effect is possible, with the flow favoring areas north of I-80. By later Tuesday, the Ogden and Salt Lake mountains should see storm totals of 10-16" or more, with temperatures plummeting to the single digits.

A warming trend follows for mid-week with the next storm slated for Thursday evening.

Ogden snow depths are 2-3' and travel is relatively easy for this time of year. Wind and sun damage exist in the upper elevations and the solar aspects, respectively; this storm will be a nice refresher.

Forecaster Dave Kelly was in the Cutler Ridge area on the 25th; his video of conditions is below.

From Ogden to the central Wasatch to the Provo mountains, we have received several excellent observations. You can find them HERE. Please keep these reports coming.

Additional Info

Owing to the prolonged dry spell, the snow surface has become excessively weak and faceted on - at a minimum - northwesterly to northerly to easterly facing aspects. Patches of surface hoar exist in the more protected terrain. Once buried with a cohesive slab of snow, these layers will become problematic as a PWL (persistent weak layer) in that they (1) remain prone to avalanching with subsequent loading events (snowfall and/or wind) and (b) become tricky and often more unpredictable than other types of avalanches. Avalanches involving PWLs account for most of our accidents and fatalities.

These layers of faceted snow are so weak that I don't believe it will take much for them to become active and dangerous. I don't think we'll see them widespread and particularly active today; tomorrow, however may be a different story.

Derek DeBruin put together a nice set of satellite images showing snow in our avalanche-related elevation bands. It's worth a look at his write up HERE.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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