Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Human-triggered avalanches remain possible on isolated slopes above treeline as our snowpack finishes stabilizing. You should still be in an assessment phase before stepping into steeper terrain. Warm, wet, and crusty conditions the past 36 hours have stabilized the snowpack near and below treeline making an avalanche unlikely. Be careful of wind-loaded slopes >35° above treeline where wind stiffened slabs could still be triggered. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Southwest-west-northwest wind at 15-25 mi/hr were dominant during the December 28-30 storm system. This created wind-stiffened snow above treeline that resulted in an avalanche cycle December 30 triggered by a brief warming period. Below freezing temperatures overnight on December 30 encapsulated this wind-stiffened snow under a thin ice crust. This ice crust will help the wind-stiffened snow to stabilize. While winds slabs remain unlikely, some lingering instabilities above treeline could make any potential avalanches quite large.

    An example of wind-stiffened snow above treeline.

    Photo: N. Meyers

Avalanche Discussion

The avalanche danger above treeline will remain MODERATE for today. Avalanche danger in our forecast area trends toward rapidly increasing during storm systems, followed by quickly stabilizing with more benign weather. With the arrival of more stable weather, greater visibility yesterday resulted in numerous reports of avalanches from forecasters and the public (see the "December 30th Avalanche Cycle" report). These avalanches likely occurred December 30 during a brief warming period. While investigating some of these avalanches, forecasters found "whumpfing" on very isolated convexities that were steep and heavily wind-loaded. Snow stability tests found mixed results with a few indicating a lingering weakness in the recent storm snow and near the Dec 23rd crust. Because of these mixed stability results, as well as some uncertainty given forecasters couldn't visit all reported avalanches, we've decided to leave the above treeline danger at MODERATE. 

Happy New Year! Make your new year's resolution to be a safer backcountry partner. And what no better way to get started than by attending our FREE Avalanche Awareness Presentation! This will be held January 7th at 7:00pm at Deadwood Supply Co in Mt Shasta City. It's followed by a FREE avalanche rescue training the next morning at Bunny Flat Trailhead. More information can be found on the Mt. Shasta Avalanche Center Events Page.

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