Northern New Mexico

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist as recent snowfall and wind have built sensitive slabs on top of very weak and fragile faceted layers near the ground.  You can trigger a wind slab avalanche on the surface at upper elevations that could be big enough to injure or bury you, but there is also the possibility that it could step down into deeper weak layers taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  These persistent slab avalanches could break widely across the slope and most likely would not be survivable. Pay attention to obvious warning signs like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks as these are indications you've found unstable snow.  It's possible to trigger an avalanche from a long distance away so avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper 30 degrees today.  

It's been an active weather week as several storms impacted northern NM bringing close to 3 feet of snow and 3.1" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  The latest storm exited east yesterday but brought 8 - 10 inches of low-density (5%) snow.  Today will bring warming temperatures and sunny skies as a ridge of high pressure moves east over NM.  The next system will be taking a southerly track as a closed low pushes across the Mexico/NM border Monday with light snowfall expected here to the north.  

A slow start to the season with small storms, prolonged periods of high pressure in November and December and a shallow snowpack helped produce widespread facet and depth hoar layers near the ground on most slopes.  Over the last week, we've had light to moderate snow almost every day that has built cohesive slabs that now rest on top of these very fragile faceted weak layers. None of these storms delivered a big wallop but conditions ramped up Wednesday afternoon when we had several large natural avalanches at all elevations failing near the ground and propagating widely across slopes. While peak instability has passed, we continue to get collapsing and cracking in travels and conditions continue to remain ripe for human-triggered avalanches.

Although we've dropped the avalanche danger to Moderate in below treeline terrain as it hasn't seen the wind loading that upper elevations have and slabs are a little less sensitive and reactive. That doesn't mean the persistent slab avalanche problem doesn't exist there. A  large natural avalanche on a NE aspect below treeline from Friday evening's storm is a good reminder that a poor snowpack structure can be found at these elevations.   

With warming temperatures and sunny skies today, you may see some small loose snow avalanches on solar aspects, especially in rock bands.  These avalanches will start as a small point release and can fan out across the slope.  These should be small and relatively harmless, but could be enough weight to step down into deeper weak layers as it travels down the slope.   

It probably sounds like a broken record at this point, as we've seen the persistent slab problem keep avalanche conditions elevated for much of January. Avoiding the persistent slab avalanche problem in our mountains right now is difficult as almost all slopes you'll encounter will have this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak. Powder fever can have a strong power of luring you into steeper terrain until it's too late as the consequences remain quite high. Go in with a conservative mindset and use cautious terrain selection, sticking to lower-angle terrain less than 30 degrees that don't have steep slopes above you.  It's not all bad news as hopefully, with a deepening snowpack, we'll start to turn the corner and see the persistent weak layers near the ground start to heal and strengthen in the coming weeks.  However that process doesn't happen overnight and will take some time.  Until then we'll continue to need to be patient before stepping out into steep terrain.  You can still find great skiing and riding in lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain that doesn't have steep slopes overhead.