Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You could trigger an avalanche on steep northwest, north, northeast, and east  slopes near and above treeline.  Avoid slopes with cohesive slabs of wind loaded snow that rests on older, weaker snow near the ground.  Smooth and rounded pillows or cornices are indicators for wind loaded terrain. For a safer and a better skiing option look for areas below treeline that are less then 35 degrees and aren't wind affected. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Earlier this week, a large natural avalanche occurred on the NE face of Fremont Peak. The avalanche occured as wind built a slab over weak faceted snow, producing a failure near/at the ground. Steep NW, N, and NE aspects above 10,500' should be considered most suspect, especially on slopes with fine cinder substrate, with few rock anchors and depth hoar. Some westerly slopes may also have this problem, see January 2nd pit from Allison Clay.

    Many easterly slopes were skiied in Humphrey's Cirque over the past few days, however this is not solid evidence that a persistent slab avalanche will not be triggered on an easterly slope. A traveler could trigger a persistent slab avalanche from thin areas on the slope, where it is easier to affect the buried weak layer. 

    The best way to manage the risk from persistent slabs avalanches is to make conservative terrain choices. Persistent slabs can be potentially triggered by a skier’s/boarder’s  weight, even weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty.

    (1/5/2023)

    Arrow indicates smooth, rounded and pillow shapped slopes in area of Core Ridge/Snowslide Canyon. These are southeast, east and northest slopes above treeline that appear to be wind loaded. 

    Photo: Paul Dawson

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Winds were actively transporting snow the past few days primarily above treeline. Watch for cracking in cohesive wind slabs overlaying softer snow, primarily near and above treeline. Avoid starting zones with large wind deposits.    

    Three inches of new snow accumulated near treeline Thursday night, and this snow will be available for transport and building of new wind slabs. Southwesterly winds are forecast for today. 

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