Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a 2.5 foot deep slab avalanche on  buried weak layers is becoming unlikely yet most possible in thin areas of the snowpack above 7,000 feet on Northern and Eastern aspects.

Use good travel protocols like watching partners travel 1 at a time on slopes steeper than 30 degrees from a safe spot. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    The snow pack has buried weak layers of surface hoar that formed 12/8 & 12/13 about 2.5 feet down. This weak layer prouduced a widespread natural avalanche cycle and a rider fatality just South of our advisory area on Sunday 12/15.  Time and warm temperatures have strengthened the snowpack enough to make triggering very difficult. The most likely spot to trigger this layer would be in a thin spot of the slab, possibly near a rock or tree, and likely by a machine. The snowpack is fairly dense (1F-P) or solid as you dig below the upper foot and below there some good bonding has happened to the crusts below. No failures propagated in all of our 3 Extended Column Tests on Monday on West Mountain.  Triggering deeper weak layers seems unlikely yet not completly out of the question.

    Maintain eyes on your partners from a safe location on slopes steep enough to slide.

Avalanche Discussion

Added snow load on top of our current snowpack will likely produce natural avalanches towards the end of the week beginning as early as the day after Christmas, Thursday, when snow is forecasted to start loading our current snowpack: 4-6 inches resting on a thin rain crust.

Always increase your margin of safety any way you can and use cautious travel protocols like 1 at a time in terrain steeper than 30 degrees and evaluate the snowpack before committing to traveling on slopes steep enough to slide or greater than 30 degrees. Do that extra transceiver check and pack a solid first aid and survival kit. Make sure your airbag works but don't depend too much on that thing it is not a magic wand.

Have a Great and Safe Christmas week! Check for observations on our observations page and submit one, it helps others see the whole picture. Thanks!

Today’s forecast is brought to you by Tamarack Resort, Thanks Tamarack!