Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
5 · Extreme
Treeline
5 · Extreme
Below
5 · Extreme
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Stay far away from, and out from beneath, steep slopes. Places that are normally safe may not be safe. Very large natural avalanches will occur. Avalanches will be easy to trigger remotely—from flat terrain below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Certain
    Size
    1.5–3

    Most steep slopes are near or already reached their tipping point. We expect the mountains to come unglued today or tonight. Large, destructive avalanches will release naturally in areas where they rarely occur. Avalanche crowns could pull into "normally safe" 25-30 degree terrain. 

    The mountains received 4-5 inches of water (4-6 feet of snowfall) in the past 4 days, and we're looking at another 1-2 inches of water (1-2 feet of snowfall) by tomorrow morning.  Precipitation rates—and the avalanche danger—are expected to peak tonight into Wednesday morning, while winds blow at moderate to strong speeds and temperatues remain near or just below freezing.

    The intense multi-day storm is overwhelming very weak snow that formed during the month long drought, including surface hoar, facets, and facet + crust combinations. These layers exist on many slopes, the weakest of which are found at middle and low elevations. Before the weak layer was buried, it appeared to be one of the worst we've seen in recent years. 

    The travel advice is simple: stay far away from steep slopes and the areas beneath them.  

    (2/2/2025) Debris from a large natural avalanche in the Warm Springs Ck drainage near Frenchman Bend. 

Avalanche Discussion

You may not see huge natural avalanches exactly where you are playing, but don't be lulled into a false sense of security; it doesn't take a huge avalanche to injure or kill a skier or snowmobiler. 

The avalanche equation remains simple today: exceptional weak layer + exceptional wet, warm, windy storm = weird and wild avalanche conditions.  If you're out playing in the hills, carefully plan your day to stay off of, out from below, and far away from steep slopes. 

Regions covered