Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The mountains are coming out of a major storm. Natural avalanche activity should diminish overnight but thick layers of new and wind drifted snow need time to gain strength. Stick to lower-angle terrain to reduce the risk of triggering an avalanche. Look out for wet avalanches if the sun makes an appearance.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Continued snowfall should put down another 4-8” into the morning. The likelihood of triggering and/or being caught in a slab avalanche is less. Conditions are still considered dangerous given the amount of new snow, wind loading, and natural avalanches since Tuesday. Many slopes slid naturally but some didn’t. It will take a day to get a handle on the full extent of avalanche activity and snowpack factors such as faceted layers observed prior to the storm.

    You are more likely to trigger an avalanche on slopes with recent wind loading but consider all steep terrain as suspect until proven otherwise. The best policy is to simply limit your exposure to large steep slopes or smaller slopes with consequences like trees or gullies in the runout.  Don't ignore obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks or whumphing.

     

    (2/7/2023)

    Fresh storm slab avalanche crowns on Shuskan Arm in near treeline terrain.

    Photo: Mt Baker Patrol

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    There is no shortage of fresh, new snow out there. If the sun comes out and southerly aspects warm up, wet loose avalanche activity might consist of more than a few rollerballs. There’s no guarantee you will see anything significant. Still, stay alert to steep slopes overhead if the sun comes out.

    Look for initial signs of instability like snow shedding from trees and rocks. Pinwheels or balls of snow rolling down the slope are also telltale signs of warming. If you see these it would be a great time to give a wide berth to slopes that face the sun. Though initially small, wet avalanches could grow in size or trigger a slab avalanche lower on the hill and run farther than expected.

    Small wet loose avalanches on Mazama Dome in March 2022.

Avalanche Discussion

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred Tuesday around Shuksan and the Mt. Baker Ski Area. Multiple avalanches to D3 in size - some even larger - were reported. Backcountry observations from other areas were limited due to stormy conditions, heavy snowfall, and high avalanche danger. Those who were out found easy to trigger test features and slopes. Signs of natural avalanche activity were noted despite very poor visibility.

Heather Meadows picked up 2’ of new snow at treeline with similar amounts likely at Schriebers Meadow on the south side of Baker. As usual other sub-zones like Canyon Creek and the north side of Baker likely saw slightly less snow and avalanche danger.  Various Snotel weather stations recorded anywhere from 0.6" to 2.0" of snow water equivalent which translates to 6-24" of snow depending both on elevation and also the position in the zone (east v west, favored by southwest flow or not, etc).

If you are out in one of these areas tomorrow, submit an observation and let us know what you see!

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