Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Extreme southwest winds and accumulating snow will create dangerous avalanche conditions on wind-loaded slopes at near and above treeline elevations. Strong winds will also push down to lower elevations and lead to wind-loading in unusual places. In wind-sheltered areas, bands of heavy snowfall will make shallow storm slab avalanches more reactive. Avalanche activity can also step down into weak layers deeper in the snowpack producing larger avalanches than you may expect. We have a blustery day coming up with changing avalanche conditions. Caution is advised.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2

    Strong south-to-southwest winds and plenty of snow avalanches for transport have created sensitive wind slabs in wind-loaded terrain. Expect this avalanche problem to both become more reactive and grow in size throughout the day. Wind slabs are commonly formed on the lee sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. If elevated winds push down to valley elevations today, you can expect this avalanche problem to develop in some unusual locations at lower elevations. 

    Blowing snow is creating the largest and most reactive avalanches on wind-loaded terrain featuers. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    Over the past 2 weeks, several large avalanches have failed on faceted weak layers deeper in the snowpack.  These include a natural avalanche on Carbonate Hil on Thursday, a remotely triggered avalanche on Mt. Emmons on Sunday, and several human-triggered slides the previous week (Hunter Hill, Snowmass). Persistent slab activity has been infrequent this month and most problematic on wind-loaded terrain.  The current loading event will now begin stressing these buried weak layers and we can expect this avalanche problem to become more reactive again. Traveling on lower-angled slopes without overhead hazards is one way to manage this avalanche problem. 

    A large persistent slab avalanche that was human triggered earlier this month. 

Avalanche Discussion

As of 5am the NW Mountains have snow totals in the 6 to 8-inch range, while totals in the SE Mountains are in the 3 to 5" range. Wind speeds have dropped in the last few hours, but they are expected to ramp right back up this morning. There is high confidence in the dangerous avalanche conditions developing at upper elevations and on wind-loaded slopes. There is plenty of snow available for transport with strong to extreme winds in the forecast. There is lower confidence in the developing storm slab avalanche problem in wind-sheltered terrain. Snow totals are modest and temperatures will be dropping through the day. That will help keep this avalanche problem from becoming very reactive. However, the forecast is calling for bands of high precipitation rates to move through the area and these could create rapidly changing avalanche conditions with storm slabs becoming more reactive during and after these events. 

Persistent slab avalanche concerns continue in the SE Mountains and this avalanche problem is also more widespread in that forecast area. A persistent slab avalanche problem was also added to the NW Mountains as persistent weak layers that were formed in the last month are now coming into play. 

We have accumulating snow and elevated winds in the forecast for the remainder of the work week. Avalanche problems will continue to grow during this time and dangerous avalanche conditions can be expected to continue.

Regions covered