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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

May 4th, 2014–May 4th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

This will mark the end of our regular bulletins. However, if significant weather is forecasted, we will issue new bulletins as needed.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Flurries will bring more snow over the next 24hrs. Amounts are only expected to be around 6cm due to the rapid settlement. Winds will be light from variable directions. Freezing levels will vary from 1600m to 2100m for the next 3 days. Some sun is expected as the front clears off. Expect very strong solar effect and a rapid rise in air temp when this happens.

Avalanche Summary

One large avalanche was noted today that occurred sometime during the storm. It appeared to be a large size 2, but the start zone was obscured.  NE asp, 2350m, wet slab. When the sun made a brief appearance today there was immediate pin wheeling from steep solar aspects.

Snowpack Summary

The new snow has settled significantly in the past 24hrs. Today alone, we witnessed 20cm of storm snow settle to 15cm's within an hour. At all elevations the entire snowpack is moist. Below 2000m, the afternoon heat is turning the snowpack isothermal. In the alpine, the storm slabs are found in immediate lee areas and are  well bonded to underlying surfaces. No wind effect at treeline or below.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.