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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2014–Jan 4th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

A strong northwesterly flow prevails as an upper ridge establishes itself offshore. Winds will be the most important feature to watch over the next 24 hours. Chance of precip on Monday evening.Saturday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precip: Nil; Wind: Mod NW, Strong at ridgetop. Sunday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precip: Nil; Wind: Light, Var. Strong SW at ridgetop.Monday: Freezing Level: 700m Precip: Nil; Wind: Strong SW, Extreme SW at ridgetop.

Avalanche Summary

Previous to Thursday's big storm avalanche activity was limited to fairly manageable wind/storm slabs to size 1/2. Within the last week we received reports of very large avalanches releasing deep within the snowpack (1 to 1.5m) in the Cariboos. I expect that the heavy snowfall associated with Thursday's storm will result in a large natural avalanche cycle. Check back tomorrow for more details.

Snowpack Summary

Thursdays storm brought 20 - 50 cm of snow to the region. This snow lies on top of old wind slabs, a buried rain crust that exists below 1600m and a couple buried weak layers (surface hoar or facets) that are down 100-150cm deep. I expect that there was a large natural avalanche cycle Thursday night. Expect to find touchy storm/wind slabs in exposed lee terrain at and above treeline that should persist through the weekend. The last week has brought around a meter of snow. Happy New Year. Snowpack depths vary, but in general 175 cm of snow can be found at treeline, with 125-250 cm in the alpine. In many places we're still dealing with a relatively thin snowpack (thanks to a windy early season) so there's not a whole lot of snow between riders and the sugary snow (facets) near the ground. The basal facet/crust combo has been recently active in parts of the region and continues to give easy to moderate results in snowpack tests. This basal weakness may be difficult to trigger but if triggered, may result in very large, destructive avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.