Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

Ongoing Severe Gales continue to create conditions for dangerous wind slab avalanches on a range of aspectsAvoid wind loaded terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Gale winds from West to South East ( changing late Tuesday ) will have build wind slab on a large range of aspects

    Avoid areas with recent wind loading. Be aware that this could happen on X-loaded features, mid-slope rolls as well as in the usual start zones near ridgeline.

Recent Avalanche Activity

2/8: Size 1 ski cut loose wet avalanche at the head of the Jollie on a solar aspect in the afternoon.

1/8: Two loose wet avalanches around size 1.5 were seen running in Pinnacle stream out of steep terrain on a rocky, sunny face at around 1pm.

Current Snowpack Conditions

An estimated 100cm of new snow has fallen about the Divide, tapering to 60cm in the Liebigs, and 20-40cm in the eastern part of the forecast area above around 1500m on the 30th and 31st. This was redistributed by severe gale westerlies on Monday and will continue with expected Gale to Severe Gale South Westerlies to South Easterly on on Tuesday. Patches of rain crust are exposed below around 1700m. Suncrust is forming on solar aspects.

The lower pack is generally well settled, and includes a mix of slick crusts in areas exposed to west and northwesterly winds, wind-pressed snow in deposition zones on east and south facing terrain near ridgeline, and loose, faceted powder in sheltered areas.

Mountain Weather

Areas of cloud and the chance of a snow shower.

Wind at 1000 metres

Southwesterly 50 km/h rising to gale 80 km/h before dawn. Turning southeasterly 30 km/h in the afternoon.

Wind at 2000 metres

Southwesterly severe gale 90 km/h. Turning southeasterly gale 80 km/h in the afternoon, easing to 50 km/h at night.

Wind at 3000 metres

Southwesterly severe gale 100 km/h turning southeasterly in the afternoon. Easing to 50 km/h in the evening.

Freezing level

400 metres, rising to 800 metres for a time around midday, then lowering to 200 metres in the evening.

Sliding Danger

Ridgelines and exposed areas will be been scoured back to slick crusts in places. Crampons and an ice axe are a good idea for ridge travel.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • The snowpack structure is well understood.
  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain due to the variability of wind effect on the snowpack.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered