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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2019–Jan 8th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Surface slabs are developing with the increased winds in the alpine. Use terrain to your advantage and avoid convex rolls or large, planar slopes.

Weather Forecast

Convective cells passing through the region will bring isolated flurries between sunny breaks. Alpine highs of -12*C and moderate SW winds will keep things cool. Similar conditions Tuesday, with light/moderate SW winds, isolated flurries, and alpine highs of -7*C. A system rolls through Wed/Thurs, bringing 10-15cm and rising freezing levels (1600m)

Snowpack Summary

Recent snowfall is now being redistributed in the alpine by moderate SW winds. Cornices grew considerably during last week's storm and are looming along ridgecrests. Persistent weak layers from December are buried deep in the snowpack and will need a large trigger to wake up. An early season crust is decomposing at or near the ground.

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity has decreased, with several sz 2 slabs from the Macdonald north-side gullies observed yesterday. Tests in the Hermit basin found broken results down 100cm at the storm interface We could not get anything to move with ski-cutting steep features below tree-line. Similar results were found in the Asulkan. Limited alpine obs

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.