Some new snow is headed this way on Friday but until then... The weak base will be an issue all year. Patience is a virtue. Things will get better with more snow!
Weather Forecast
Not much changing. No new snow is expected over the next 24hrs with temperatures being warmer than average (-5C at 1800m). Winds will begin to increase out of the W later in the afternoon on wednesday into the moderate to strong range.
Avalanche Summary
1 new sz 2.5 natural avalanche on a W aspect above Rummel lake. The slab was seen from a distance so details are scant. It appeared to fail below a steep cliff band.
Snowpack Summary
Pockets of fresh wind slab are found at upper elevations in lee and cross-loaded terrain, but these slabs are not widespread in distribution. Forecasters continue to have low confidence in the snowpack with 50 to 60cm of medium to high density snow overlying a very weak base of up to 50cm of facets. This is the perfect combination for avalanches. Despite a lack of recent naturally triggered avalanches, there is strong potential for human triggering with the current snowpack structure. Unfortunately, this state of affairs will be with us for some time to come.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.