Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Triggering a persistent slab avalanche remains possible on West through Southeast-facing terrain at all elevations. 2 to 4ft thick slabs and deeply buried weak faceted snow means we are dealing with triggering large to very large avalanches. The uncertainty and high consequences of getting it wrong have us seeking wind sheltered terrain less than 35 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    2 to 4 ft foot slabs formed from the end of January storms rest on top of several faceted weak layers and depth hoar near the ground.  Although it's been a week since the last significant loading event, strong west winds have been creating stiffer slabs on the surface and are slowly loading slopes that hang delicately in the balance. A couple of recent natural avalanches near and above treeline speak to how fragile the deeper faceted weak layers continue to be.  These were large to very large avalanches and would've been unsurvivable. Below treeline, these persistent slab avalanches may be smaller but could have serious consequences if they take you over a cliff or bury you in a terrain trap.  

    Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses may not be present in travels. Taking the time to dig down deeper into the snowpack is the only way to assess whether this strong over weak snowpack structure exists. To stay safe, avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 35 degrees as you may be able to trigger an avalanche from below and these avalanches may run long distances.  

    Large natural avalanche on a cross-loaded west gully near treeline. The avalanche failed on facets 2 to 5 feet down in the snowpack.

Avalanche Discussion

Sadly, there have been 15 reported avalanche fatalities in the United States since January 30. Within that period was the highest number of US avalanche fatalities ever recorded over a single week. Prolonged periods of high pressure that plagued the entirety of the western US earlier this year formed shallow, weak snowpacks that are now buried deeply creating dangerous and unpredictable avalanche conditions for many mountainous regions at the moment. Taos, NM is no exception. 

Sometimes, the most informational and meaningful observations are right in front of you, no digging required. Let's remove the unknowns for a moment and just take a look at what we do know...

There has been widespread persistent slab avalanche activity across the western US, including here in Taos. There have been 15 recent avalanche fatalities and many more close calls since Jan 30. We have buried weak faceted snow resting underneath dense, thick slabs creating an extremely poor snowpack structure. This structure has recently produced many D2-D3 size natural avalanches in the Sangre de Cristo's.

That, tells me everything I need to know for the moment. Recent avalanche activity in and of itself is single-handedly the most valuable observation you can make. All the recent evidence points towards a snowpack and avalanche problem that is behaving unpredictably and catching many skiers and riders off guard and by surprise. With all that uncertainty and recent obvious signs of instability, I'm not really looking for evidence to justify skiing in avalanche terrain when I'm out touring right now. For the reasons mentioned above, I'm dialing back my terrain selection and giving this avalanche problem time to heal. 

With warm temperatures today loose wet snow avalanches below treeline may become a concern.  If you are traveling in this lower elevation terrain and notice rollerballs, pinwheels, or snow becoming wet, you may want to head to a shadier aspect.  These avalanches would be small but could sweep you off your feet and drag you down the slope.

Continue to stay vigilant and not let your guard down. Pay attention to changing snow surfaces, as harder slabs can break in unpredictable ways, oftentimes failing well above you. Travel conservatively and cautiously in and around avalanche terrain and continue to use good travel techniques thinking about your islands of safety. Low-angle, wind-sheltered terrain has been skiing extremely well recently! 

 

Regions covered