Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A large triggered avalanche yesterday is a reminder that dangerous conditions linger on some steep, upper elevation slopes that are affected by the wind. In this type of terrain, you could release an avalanche 1-2' thick. Avalanches may be triggered remotely—from areas below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday, Sun Valley Heli Ski guides remotely-triggered a large avalanche in the Western Smokys. This slide exemplifies the nature of our persistent weak layer, and also demonstrates the concept of "remote triggering." While skiing low angle terrain, the group felt the snowpack collapse beneath them. This collapse propagated through the weak layer across the bowl and triggered an avalanche in steep, wind-loaded terrain 800-1000' away. Your reaction is probably the same as mine—yikes! You can see more details about the avalanche here.

    This event follows on the heels of three separate slides that were triggered in the Galena Summit area December 26-27, as well as a cycle of large natural avalanches that occurred after the Solstice and Christmas storms. Suffice to say that we're not even close to out of the woods with this weak layer. In the Soldiers & Wood River Valley zone, we've just barely seen the opening acts. 

    Despite the overall decreasing likelihood of triggering a slide, the nature of our snowpack demands conservative terrain choices. Triggering an avalanche is more likely on steep slopes (over about 35 degrees) that have been affected by recent or past wind events, especially in the western portion of this zone where a thicker slab exists over the weak layer. 

    With a wet weather pattern in the forecast tonight through Tuesday, expect the avalanche danger to increase significantly over the next few days.

    (1/1/2021) Sun Valley Heli Ski remotely triggered this avalanche from lower angled terrain 800-1000' away. The group felt a collapse that propagated across the bowl into steeper, wind-loaded terrain. Avalanche released on a 9400', E aspect in the Western Smokys. Photo courtesy of Sun Valley Heli Ski.

Avalanche Discussion

These seem like tough times, as far as the avalanche conditions are concerned. The danger is MODERATE, and the number of slopes where you could trigger an avalanche has decreased since the last storm. Yet obvious signs of instability (aka Red Flags) are still present. Backcountry travelers are still reporting collapsing of the snowpack, test scores remain poor, and yesterday we got the mother of all Red Flags—a large triggered avalanche!

But times are only tough if you're trying to thread the needle and ski or ride in the steepest terrain you can get away with. If you accept the scary and unpredictable nature of our snowpack, things become much simpler. Rather than trying to outsmart or overthink the avalanche problem, the best approach is to take a big step back and wait it out. There is plenty of fun to be had skiing mellower slopes, or boondocking and tree riding on your sled or snowbike. I've found that finding enjoyment in this sort of backcountry travel is an important skill when dealing with the dangerous snowpack that's so common in our neck of the woods. Not only does it increase the fun factor when the snowpack is unpredictable, it also increases something even more important—our longevity!

We sure to catch up on this past weeks' conditions with Scott's new Weekend Update!

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